Russia is waging war against Ukraine in the forests of Kharkiv region, the steppes of Kherson and among the ruins of Donbas. But the area of military operations is not limited to the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine. In their war against Ukrainians, the Russians are using not only missiles and guided bombs, tanks and artillery.
For the Kremlin, the information front is no less important, and crazy money is being allocated for the fight. The draft budget for 2025 provides for 137.2 billion rubles (1.42 billion USD) for state propaganda. Compared to 2024 media spending will increase by 15.9 billion rubles or 13%, and their total volume will exceed the annual budgets of average Russian regions (for example, 135 billion rubles in the Kaliningrad region, 110 billion rubles in the Perm region).
Moscow seeks to discredit the Ukrainian military-political leadership in the eyes of Russians and the international community, to undermine the trust of Western, African, Latin American and Asian leaders, to divide the Ukrainian elite and demoralize Ukrainians.
According to information received from anonymous informed sources familiar with Russian hybrid activities abroad, there is an intensification of Russian information operations aimed at discrediting the President of Ukraine, the leadership of the Office of the President of Ukraine and other representatives of the military-political leadership of Ukraine. Against the background of the failure of the so-called. “SVO - special military operation“ to achieve its goals on the battlefield, the propaganda machine of the Russian Federation under the leadership of Sergei Kiriyenko in the near future plans to launch a large-scale anti-Ukrainian information campaign to fabricate and disseminate manipulative messages and outright lies about its dignity. and the desire to fight to the last Ukrainian“, “tolerance of Nazism“ and “support for international terrorism“, “total corruption in the government“, “ineffective use of Western aid“, etc.
Already today in some media we can observe the appearance of publications that play into the hands of Russian propaganda, which indicates that Russia is beginning to measure the reaction of the target audience to a certain narrative in order to determine the most reactionary topics.
The forecasts are that the campaign will reach its climax on the eve of Donald Trump's inauguration and for several months after that. The intensification of propaganda efforts is associated with an attempt to prevent the establishment of a constructive dialogue between Ukraine and the new administration of the US president in order to prevent the end of the war on terms unfavorable to Russia.
The Kremlin's plans include using its capabilities, surrounded by opposition Ukrainian politicians, experts and journalists, to provoke statements critical of Vladimir Zelensky and his team, which will sound in unison with the narratives of Russian propaganda, will bring discord into Ukrainian society and will provide an opportunity for Russian propaganda in Western media on the topic of a “political crisis” in Ukraine.
At the same time, a scenario is not ruled out in which Russian special services may resort to radical actions, including carrying out assassination attempts on opposition figures in Ukraine, the purpose of which is to provoke and incite Ukrainian society to protest actions.
The main goal of Russian information and psychological operations is to create an image of the Ukrainian leadership as incompetent, corrupt and unable to govern effectively. may disappear completely”, “Zelensky bought a hotel in Courchevel for 88 million EUR”, “the son of the former head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry acquired the Iron Throne from “Game of Thrones”...
The highest levels of the Russian authorities, to which the management of the Kremlin's disinformation activities in the foreign information space is directed, were studied in detail by The Washington Post back in February 2024.
According to The Washington Post, the main curator of such campaigns is the first deputy head of the administration of the Russian President, Sergei Kiriyenko, who is close to Vladimir Putin. Under his leadership, two disinformation groups were actually created.
The campaign aimed at destabilizing the situation inside Ukraine is headed by one of Kiriyenko's closest associates, the head of the Russian Presidential Administration for Monitoring and Analysis of Social Processes, Alexander Kharychev, and the group aimed at undermining support for Ukraine in Western countries is headed by the head of the Russian Presidential Administration for Information Development - Communication Technologies and Communication Infrastructure, Tatyana Matveeva.
In addition to the above-mentioned individuals, the NGO “Dialog”, “Artemiy Lebedev Studio”, individual Russian IPSO specialists, media specialists, PR specialists and pro-government bloggers.
"Dialog" is a structure created in 2019 officially to speed up the resolution of problems with which people turn to the authorities. In reality, it is engaged in the production and dissemination of fake news and disinformation about Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine in order to support the Kremlin's propaganda, and is also responsible for maintaining accounts of many Russian state agencies, municipal educational institutions and propagandists (for example, V. Solovyov) on social networks.
After the insidious full-scale invasion in 2022, "Dialog" began to analyze how social networks react to news related to the war, and also prepares recommendations for the Russian Ministry of Defense on how to respond to large-scale events.
ANO "Dialog" is responsible for the spread of many fakes, in particular, that the Ukrainian military allegedly began to sell their awards on eBay, about the Swiss real estate of high-ranking Ukrainian officials, about "humiliating" vacancies offered to Ukrainian refugees in Poland, that supposedly mobilization of women has begun in Ukraine, that the Ukrainian army is given pills to increase aggression, etc. By the way, "Dialog" also participated in the spread of publications criticizing the head of the "Wagner" PIK, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who was in conflict with the Russian Ministry of Defense.
On July 28, 2023 ANO "Dialogue" was included in the sanctions list of EU countries for spreading disinformation and propaganda in support of Russia's war against Ukraine. On September 4, 2024, ANO "Dialogue" and its leader Vladimir Tabak were included in the US sanctions list for "malign influence" on the 2024 presidential election.
Vladimir Tabak himself became famous in 2010, after the release of a scandalous calendar with photos of Moscow State University students in underwear, dedicated to the 58th anniversary of Vladimir Putin. After that, he became an active participant in the projects of the then Deputy Head of the Administration of the Russian President Vladislav Surkov. After his resignation, the role of Tabak's patron was taken by Sergei Kiriyenko, the First Deputy Head of the Administration of the Russian Federation. It was under Kiriyenko that Tabak headed "Dialogue".
The role of the "Artemiy Lebedev" studio in the campaign to discredit Ukraine is more uncertain. In theory, Lebedev's creative agencies are involved in the creation of texts and visual products that accompany the information component.
Lebedev himself has earned a reputation as the most famous web designer and the main troll of the Russian Internet. However, with the annexation of Crimea and Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, his rhetoric has become increasingly synchronized with the Russian propaganda machine.
The accusation that Artemy Lebedev's studio is hiding large state orders, in addition to numerous contracts for the rebranding of Russian cities, the Moscow Metro or the Russian National Guard, was leveled at the designer by Alexei Navalny.
Lebedev is also the founder of the online advertising agency Reklama.ru, and since October 2023 Director of Design of the social network VKontakte, where he is allegedly responsible for “management of the design of social network products and the development of approaches to working on user interfaces ”, and also develops “a general vision for the design of the social network”.
After the appointment to VKontakte, which has long since become a state asset, fully controlled by the FSB of the Russian Federation, rumors appeared that the people who made the decision to appoint Lebedev were in higher positions than the General Director of the VK holding Vladimir Kiriyenko (son of the First Deputy Chairman of the Administration of the Russian Federation Sergei Kiriyenko) and the 29-year-old head of the social network “VK” Stepan Kovalchuk.
Lebedev actively supports Putin and the war he started against Ukraine. He has repeatedly traveled to the Russian-occupied Crimea and the territories of Donbass, not controlled by the Ukrainian authorities.
In 2020, Artemy participated in the filming of a propaganda video about the amendments to the Russian constitution for the RT television channel, and since July 2021 he has become the host of this propaganda media outlet.
Obviously, Lebedev's work for the administration of the President of the Russian Federation is not limited to his public activities. Back in 2020, he was awarded the medal of the Order of Merit to the Fatherland, 2nd degree, for his services in the formation and development of the Russian segment of the information and telecommunications network Internet.
In an attempt to achieve their goal, the Kremlin and Russian propagandists use several methods to work with international media articles. First, they take phrases out of context. The commentary turns into outright accusations. Fourth, they invent. fakes based on real Western publications.
In the world created by Russian propagandists, Foreign Policy's materials on Ukraine's exhaustion from the war are presented as a call from the West to the Ukrainian leadership to stop the “senseless war“. Newsweek's publications on the lack of personnel look like “a desire to fight to the last Ukrainian.” corruption in Ukraine becomes “evidence“ of the need to stop supporting Ukraine.
In December 2022 The Washington Post published an analysis of the challenges facing Zelensky, in particular the internal discussions about the duration of the war.
Vladimir Rostotsky
Russian political scientist