"Russia wants to provoke. Russia wants to show that it will not let itself be influenced by NATO decisions - such as the intention to strengthen air defense on the eastern flank," military expert Carlo Mazala commented in an interview with ARD. According to him, with provocations such as entering Estonian airspace "Russia is testing the response capabilities of NATO as a whole, as well as of individual countries in the Alliance. At the same time, Russia is showing more and more courage in the way it provokes, he adds.
According to Mazala, NATO should first think about strengthening its deterrence mechanisms in order to be able to prevent such incidents in the future.
In addition, the EU should send clear messages - that if something like this happens again, sanctions will immediately follow. This is called "horizontal escalation", the expert explains.
"Russia shows that it is not afraid of NATO"
Mazala, who is a lecturer at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, adds that, although belatedly, the EU sanctions against Russia are having an effect. The problem is that countries that help circumvent the restrictions by redirecting goods to Russia are not being sanctioned. There is also a lack of determination regarding the frozen Russian assets and their provision to Ukraine.
It is very important that support for Ukraine does not stop, the expert points out, this continues to be the central theme. "If concessions are made for Ukraine, this will only encourage Russia to continue with the provocations - because then the West will appear weak and unable to decisively defend its interests in Ukraine. Therefore, the issue of supporting Ukraine is central to deterring Russia," the expert emphasizes.
"It is not clear whether Trump still supports Ukraine"
In this latest escalation, Washington's role and reaction are dismissive. "They are of course related to NATO, but at the same time we see that Trump does not condemn the violations of airspace harshly enough," says Mazala. "As for the drones that invaded Poland, he said that they might have been a mistake. And so he naturally - as the leader of the strongest country in the Alliance - undermines NATO's deterrent capabilities."
The extent to which Trump and the US still support Ukraine is not very clear, believes Carlo Mazzala. "Considering Trump's demand for European NATO countries to sanction China for its oil purchases from Russia, we see that these are measures through which Trump is sort of shifting responsibility for further support for Ukraine to the Europeans." The question is whether Europe will meet these demands. "If they cannot fulfill them - as it seems at the moment, he could always say: I was ready for this, but the Europeans did not take their share."
The military expert and lecturer is convinced that at the moment only a united Europe can respond decisively to Russian provocations. Led by Great Britain, France, Italy and Germany. "These are the central countries in Europe with large armies and large resources that need to send a clear signal to Moscow", he said categorically.