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ISW: Kremlin continues to scare US with consequences for Tomahawk

Moscow is trying to present the potential deliveries as a dangerous escalation to deter the United States from sending such weapons to Ukraine

Oct 8, 2025 14:46 322

ISW: Kremlin continues to scare US with consequences for Tomahawk  - 1

The Kremlin is continuing its campaign against the sale of "Tomahawk" missiles by the US to Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on October 7 that this would be "a serious escalation" that would not change the situation on the front lines in Ukraine, and noted that the missiles could carry a nuclear warhead.

This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Peskov said that Putin had set out "unambiguously" his position on how Russia would respond to such actions, referring to threats on October 2 and 5 that this would "lead to the destruction" of the "emerging positive trend" in US-Russia relations. ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is trying to present the potential deliveries as a dangerous escalation to deter the United States from sending such weapons to Ukraine.

Other Russian officials have echoed Putin’s threats. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev absurdly stated on October 7 that Ukraine would use U.S.-made Tomahawk missiles to strike Paris, Berlin, and Warsaw, and that U.S. President Donald Trump “should understand this.”

Leonid Slutsky, leader of Russia’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) and Duma deputy, said that Trump would significantly increase the risk of starting a third world war if the U.S. sold Tomahawks to Ukraine. and that Russia would not be responsible for such an increased risk.

Russian State Duma deputy Maxim Ivanov and Russian senator Vladimir Dzhabbarov also claimed that Russia would be forced to launch a "preventive" strike against Ukraine and that "not only Ukraine will suffer".

The Kremlin has conducted similar influence operations when the United States has discussed sending Ukrainian Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), F-16 fighters, and Abrams tanks, and has routinely successfully delayed the provision of Western weapons to Ukraine.

Previous Western arms deliveries and Ukrainian strikes using US-supplied long-range weapons systems, however, have not provoked an escalating Russian response, and the West and Ukraine have repeatedly violated the alleged "red lines" Russia in the past without escalating.

Leaked Russian estimates of the ratio of Russians killed to wounded in combat in Ukraine reveal the impact of the increased use of tactical drones in Ukraine and the extent to which drones complicate ground offensives and evacuations of the wounded. The Ukrainian initiative "I Want to Live" published leaked Russian data on October 6, detailing Russian military casualties from January to August 2025.

The data show that Russian forces suffered a total of 281,550 casualties, of which: 86,744 were killed in combat, including 1,583 officers and 8,633 enlisted men; 33,996 were missing, including 11,427 enlisted men; 158,529 were wounded in combat, including 6,356 officers and 16,489 enlisted men; and 2,311 were captured. The data of the Ukrainian initiative "I Want to Live" on the total number of Russian military casualties from January to August 2025 are similar to the report of the Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief, General Oleksandr Syrsky, that Russian forces suffered 299,210 casualties from January 2025 to September 9.

European countries continue to provide humanitarian and military assistance to Ukraine and conclude joint agreements with the Ukrainian defense industrial base. Slovak Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Robert Kaliniak and Ukrainian Minister of Defense Denys Shmygal announced on October 6 that Slovakia will provide five "Božena" demining vehicles, engineering vehicles, and medical stretchers as part of Slovakia's 14th aid package for Ukraine.

This is the first Slovak aid package for Ukraine since the election of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico on October 1, 2023.

Estonian company Milrem Robotics announced on October 7 that it will deliver over 150 THeMIS unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) to Ukraine and that the Netherlands is financing the purchase of the UGVs.

Ukrainian Minister of Strategic Industries Herman Smetanin announced on October 7 that Ukraine's state defense enterprise "Ukroboronprom" has concluded cooperation agreements on concepts for "swim-and-fly" drones with the American drone manufacturer LeVanta Tech at the Third International Defense Industry Forum (DFNC3) in Kiev.

Smetanin also announced that "Ukroboronprom" had signed agreements with the Spanish defense company Escribano Mechanical & Engineering related to air defense and armored vehicles.