A dinner that could change everything on the front in Ukraine

Today (October 17) in the evening in Washington, a meeting will take place between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump, which could determine the further course of the war and support for Ukraine. "Focus" has prepared an article about what the results of the negotiations could be and what risks exist. The article is based on publications in the Ukrainian magazine "Focus", data from the Center for a New American Security, published by the Financial Times and other Western media.

Today, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to meet with US President Donald Trump. The talks will begin at 8:00 p.m. Bulgarian time in an informal setting during dinner and will be closed to the media, according to the US president's schedule published by Roll Call.

The choice of time and format of the meeting - during dinner, without access to the media - suggests the desire of both sides to act in conditions of confidentiality. A day earlier, it became known that Trump had held telephone talks with Vladimir Putin and announced a new summit in Budapest. This cast a shadow over the negotiations with Ukraine, causing surprise in Zelensky's entourage, who in the meantime arrived in Washington for the meeting, Axios reported earlier.

The key topics of the meeting should be:

- the transfer of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. The main questions are about the number of missiles and the targets that Ukraine wants to hit. The question also remains about who will operate the missiles. In separate reports, the Financial Times reported that the US would only be able to supply Ukraine with 20 to 50 Tomahawk missiles and that if Ukraine does receive the Tomahawks, they would be operated by the US.

-strengthening Ukraine's air defense systems

-discussing Ukraine's potential transition to the next phase of hostilities. Trump had earlier said that Ukraine intended to go on the offensive, which led some analysts to assume that the US would provide Kiev with more weapons.

-US sanctions policy towards Russia. US Vice President J.D. Vance said in an interview with Newsmax that "the Trump administration has found that tariffs are more effective than sanctions in influencing Russia's behavior".

The main issue for Ukraine remains the missiles. Trump has already stated publicly that "the US has a lot of Tomahawk missiles, but the US itself needs them", which hints at the internal dilemma between helping Ukraine and ensuring its own security. The Ukrainian side clearly hopes that these negotiations will not remain just at the level of promises, but will give impetus to concrete steps on the part of Washington.

What can we expect – and what can happen "behind the scenes"

What Kiev expects:

-clear decisions on arms supplies. If the US agrees to -provide Tomahawk or other systems, this will lead to a serious strengthening of Ukraine's defense capability

-guarantees and documents. Zelensky will probably require legally or politically secured commitments to avoid "broken promises".

-coordination of military plans. Discussion of a potential offensive, -agreement on strategic steps and logistics.

-sanction pressure. The US may discuss expanding or updating the sanctions package against the Russian Federation, depending on the events on the front.

Risks:

Agreements may turn out to be mostly declarative – without specific dates and volumes.

There is a possibility that the discussion of Tomahawk will be a tool for pressure or trade, but will not necessarily lead to a significant volume of delivery.