The Russian Defense Ministry said that the strike with the Oreshnik ballistic missile on targets in Ukraine was carried out in response to an alleged attempt by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to attack the residence of the Russian president on the night of December 29. However, Ukraine insists that it did not launch drones in the direction of the residence. According to the New York Times, the CIA has also concluded that there was no such attack, writes the military observer of the BBC Russian Service Pavel Aksyonov
However, in recent days, the Russian authorities may find other reasons for such a launch. The most obvious is the detention of a Russian tanker by special forces of the US Coast Guard in the Atlantic Ocean.
Although the Oreshnik If it was used against a target on the territory of Ukraine, this weapon is part of the nuclear deterrent system and its demonstration in combat conditions cannot but be a signal to Western European countries and the United States.
The missile did not carry nuclear warheads — most likely these were imitators. However, they developed hypersonic speed and significant kinetic energy was released upon impact. So far, there is no information about the damage caused.
"Oreshnik" can potentially be used against any targets in Europe, including American ones. This medium-range missile is a serious and dangerous weapon. Due to the short flight time and the hypersonic speed at which the warheads are directed to the target, it is extremely difficult to intercept.
Preparation for such a launch probably takes a long time — this is only the second use of the weapon and it is most likely being carried out in a test mode. However, it is difficult not to compare the two facts - the tanker's detention and the missile launch, which coincide so precisely in time.
In addition, it should be added that similar missile systems are already deployed on the territory of Belarus. This circumstance significantly changes the strategic security picture in Europe, since geographical proximity significantly shortens the flight time to targets deep in the interior of the continent. From positions in Belarus, missiles can reach key military, infrastructure and command facilities in Central and Western Europe within extremely short time windows.
It is precisely this reduction in reaction time that is among the most serious challenges for missile defense systems. The combination of medium range, hypersonic speed and deployment in Belarus means that political and military centers in Europe have minimal time to make decisions in the event of a possible escalation. In this sense, the demonstrative use of "Oreshnik" in combat conditions it can be interpreted not only as a tactical move in the war in Ukraine, but also as a strategic warning to NATO and the United States.