Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said yesterday that air strikes on Iran would not bring down the regime there, the Anadolu Agency (AA) reported to BTA under an information-sharing agreement between the two agencies.
“No, it will not fall“, Fidan said in a live interview with “CNN Turk“ when asked if the regime would fall if such an attack were carried out to topple it.
“I don't want to speculate on specific scenarios in Iran, but the regime will not change through an air strike or anything else. This is a pipe dream. It is possible that the government will weaken, the system will weaken and it will be unable to provide services to the people. Then the existing regime may choose to take much more radical decisions and possibly try to correct the situation. It could transform itself“, the Turkish foreign minister added.
Fidan's statement comes as Iran and the United States prepare for the next round of talks, which resumed in Oman on Friday after a nearly eight-month hiatus.
Emphasizing that the Iranian issue has become a major issue on the international agenda, Fidan stressed the fact that the region cannot afford another war.
“Our president (Recep Tayyip Erdogan) is also extremely sensitive about this issue. "That is why we want to use all available means to prevent a possible war," he said.
While describing the current tension as an issue that is "difficult to resolve quickly," Fidan nevertheless indicated the clear willingness of the parties to continue negotiations.
According to him, calls for "more creative solutions" have gained momentum and emphasize the need to move away from the "threat of war."
"There does not seem to be an immediate threat of war at the moment," Fidan said, emphasizing that the door to negotiations is open.
"The Iranians do not have atomic bombs." There is no evidence that they want to do so“
Fidan said that the focus of tension around Iran should not be the regime itself, but rather the decisions and policies it follows, because according to the Turkish foreign minister, focusing solely on regime change risks missing deeper, systemic problems.
“The problem is not the regime itself. The problem is the decisions the regime makes and the policies it implements. Of course, to what extent this can be separated from the regime is another topic, but there are regimes that are far more centralized and totalitarian than Iran“, he said.
Fidan noted that Iran is not ruled by an absolute monarchy, pointing out that other countries in the region function as absolute monarchies without facing similar international pressure.
“As long as they do not cause global problems, there are no global complaints about them. "Nobody really cares what kind of regime they have," he said, adding that the real source of tension lies in policy choices, not the type of regime.
Fidan highlighted the dual structure of power in Iran, noting the coexistence of an elected government and a supreme leader who operates outside the electoral system.
He stressed that the supreme leader's authority extends beyond politics into the religious and spiritual realm, which gives extraordinary legitimacy to decisions made at that level.
"This is a rare concentration of power," the Turkish foreign minister said.
Drawing on his experience in managing the International Atomic Energy Agency before heading Turkey's National Intelligence Organization (MIT), Fidan commented on Iran's nuclear program.
He said Tehran is pushing for uranium enrichment while upholding a religious decree of the supreme leader declaring nuclear weapons banned.
“With this fatwa in force, the system cannot produce a bomb“, he said. “But it is developing capabilities close to weaponizing them, which leads to sanctions and treatment as if it had already produced a bomb.“
Fidan stressed that Iran has not taken steps to weaponize enriched uranium and does not possess nuclear weapons.
“The Iranians do not have atomic bombs. There is no evidence that they want to make them,“ he said, noting that while there are assumptions about how quickly Iran could make them if it wanted to, they remain theoretical and are constantly being revised.
The Turkish foreign minister stressed that enrichment alone is not enough.
“On the one hand, you have to enrich uranium. "On the other hand, you have to develop warheads and then combine them. Now Iran has not taken a single step in this regard, towards weaponization," he said.
Fidan said questions remained about Iran's rationale for continuing to enrich uranium at a high level, despite Tehran's claims that it has no intention of building nuclear weapons.
“If there is no such intention, some say, then there is no need for enrichment on this scale or for such heavy sanctions to exist,“ he said.
When asked about Turkey's position on Iran's potential acquisition of nuclear weapons, Fidan said Ankara did not want dramatic changes in the regional balance of power.
“Such a development would seriously harm the spirit of cooperation in the region,“ the Turkish foreign minister said, warning that it could trigger a wider nuclear arms race and ultimately force Turkey and others to respond in kind.
“I don't think this would be beneficial for the region,“ he added he.