The Ukrainian parliament is facing a deep institutional crisis that calls into question the country's ability to secure vital external financing. Although the pro-presidential party "Servant of the People" formally retains a majority, in practice the Verkhovna Rada is experiencing serious difficulties in adopting key laws required by the International Monetary Fund, the BBC reports.
According to information from Bloomberg, Ukraine risks losing access to an $8.1 billion package if a number of unpopular reforms are not adopted by the end of March. The funds are of critical importance against the backdrop of the blocked financing from the European Union in the amount of 90 billion euros, the approval of which is being hindered by the position of Hungary.
Disintegration of the "mono-majority"
The crisis reveals the deep collapse of the so-called "mono-majority" - a unique model for the post-Soviet history of Ukraine, in which one party controls the parliament. In 2019, "Servant of the People" entered the 450-seat Rada with 254 deputies. Today, formally, they are 228, but real support is significantly lower.
According to data from the leadership of the parliamentary group, the party's core has fallen to about 111 deputies. This makes it virtually impossible to pass legislation independently and requires seeking support from other political forces, which is often lacking.
Conflict between parliament and government
One of the main reasons for the blockage is the tension between parliament and the government, headed by Prime Minister Yulia Sviridenko. Some deputies accuse the cabinet of negotiating unpopular measures with the IMF and then shifting political responsibility to the Rada.
Among the controversial proposals are the introduction of duties on all shipments from abroad and limiting the simplified tax regimes for small businesses. Deputies fear that they will bear the brunt of public discontent while the executive branch will extract political dividends from social programs.
Weakened role of the president
Relations between parliament and President Volodymyr Zelensky are also deteriorating. MPs from the ruling party express dissatisfaction with the lack of communication with the head of state, who is focused on war and foreign policy.
The tension also increased after his statement that "if you don't serve the state in parliament - you will serve at the front", which was perceived as an indirect threat to the MPs, although it was later softened by his entourage.
Fear of anti-corruption investigations
An additional factor for the paralysis is the fear among MPs of investigations by anti-corruption bodies, including NABU. After a series of scandals and investigations into bribery and abuse, many MPs are avoiding voting on controversial bills so as not to fall under the blows of the law.
This fear has intensified after a failed attempt to limit the independence of anti-corruption institutions, which led to mass protests and strong international pressure, forcing the parliament to quickly repeal the adopted changes.
Risk of institutional blockage
As a result of these processes, the Verkhovna Rada is practically losing its ability to work. On the sidelines, the possibility of dozens of MPs giving up their mandates, which would deepen the crisis, is being discussed.
However, organizing early elections is practically impossible due to the ongoing war. An alternative option - the formation of a broad coalition - is met with resistance from the president, who denies the existence of a systemic crisis.
An uncertain future
The situation calls into question not only access to international financing, but also Ukraine's ability to make strategic decisions, including those related to possible negotiations to end the war.
For now, parliament continues to function by inertia, but more and more analysts are warning that without a political solution and the restoration of trust between institutions, the crisis could grow into a serious threat to the country's stability.