US Patriot missile injures dozens of civilians in Bahrain on March 9

A US Patriot air defence system is believed to have fired a missile that caused a pre-dawn explosion that injured dozens of civilians in Bahrain 10 days after the start of the war with Iran, Reuters reported, citing an expert analysis commissioned by the agency.

Both Bahrain and Washington initially said the March 9 explosion, which the kingdom said injured 32 people, including children, some seriously, was caused by an Iranian drone. In a statement on the day of the attack, the US Central Command said an Iranian drone had struck a residential area in Bahrain.

Bahrain acknowledged for the first time on Tuesday that a Patriot missile was involved in the explosion on Sitra Island, off the coast of the capital Manama, which is also home to an oil refinery. A government spokesman said the missile had successfully intercepted an Iranian drone in mid-air, saving lives.

Neither Bahrain nor Washington have provided evidence that an Iranian drone was involved, Reuters reported. Using expensive, sophisticated weapons to defend against attacks by far cheaper drones has become a common sight in Middle East warfare.

The Bahrain incident demonstrates the risks and limitations of this strategy - The powerful explosion of a Patriot missile, whether it intercepted a drone or not, likely contributed to the heavy damage and casualties, while Bahrain's air defenses failed to prevent strikes on a nearby refinery, which declared force majeure hours later.

Experts consulted by Reuters were unable to determine with certainty what caused the Patriot missile explosion. They said that based on the available evidence, including the nature and extent of the damage on the ground, it appears that the missile exploded in flight.

They concluded that it was possible that the missile was fired at a low-flying drone and that the combined explosion of the missile and the drone caused the damage.

“If so, this was a reckless intercept attempt, as it endangered the lives and homes of civilians of a US ally in a residential area,“ the experts' analysis said.

This scenario is consistent with what a Bahraini government spokesman said happened - that a “Patriot“ missile intercepted an Iranian drone, followed by an explosion in the air.

However, according to the analysis of experts, the location of the damage on site and the lack of available evidence of a drone flight over the site of the explosion suggest another possible scenario - namely, that “the explosion was the sole result of the detonation of a warhead and unspent fuel on a “Patriot“ missile.