An effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for another month could lead to an increase in Brent crude oil prices to $150 per barrel, believes Bruce Kasman, chief economist at the American bank JP Morgan.
“A scenario of closing the channel for another month could lead to an increase in oil prices to $150 per barrel and an interruption in electricity supplies to industrial users“, the “Times“ newspaper quoted him as saying.
On March 30, the price of Brent crude oil futures for delivery in June 2026 on the London ICE exchange exceeded $115 per barrel for the first time time since March 19, 2026, but later fell to 112.78.
The Iranian Navy has imposed strict restrictions, turning back commercial ships and prohibiting the passage of vessels associated with “hostile“ countries.
The strait is crucial for transporting about 20% of the world's oil. The blockade is already significantly increasing the cost of logistics.
On March 26, Israel announced that it had eliminated Alireza Tangsiri – Revolutionary Guard Navy commander, who is considered the main organizer of the blockade.
Donald Trump again warned Iran to open the strait while the US and other powers consider options to break the blockade.
Alternative export routes are insufficient, which puts transactions worth more than $1.2 trillion at risk.
The blockade seriously threatens the agricultural sector by disrupting food and fertilizer supply chains.
Iranian authorities say they will use all resources to maintain control of the strait, calling it the “last battle”. At the same time, analyses are emerging that Tehran is making millions from the tension by controlling prices and fees.