The agreement on a two-week ceasefire between Washington and Tehran is in practice a recognition of equality in the war – and both sides fear “even greater losses“ if the conflict drags on, writes Foreign Affairs.
The magazine comments that the war with Iran has gone through three phases: initial, middle and final. The Trump administration had hoped for a quick conflict, but these expectations were not met. Instead of a “chess game“, the war has turned into a “dollar auction“ – a trap in which both sides continue to raise the stakes, incurring ever greater losses in order to avoid complete defeat, writes FA.
By the end of March, the magazine notes, it became clear that neither side would surrender easily and the war had become unprofitable for everyone. Trump's ultimatum of "the destruction of an entire civilization" was most likely a "bluff" - its implementation would be too costly for the United States. However, the Iranians could not be sure of this. In the end, both sides retreated from the "brink of all-out war" and the final stage began.
By agreeing to a ceasefire, the United States and Iran acknowledged that they would not be able to achieve everything they wanted, the publication writes. However, the difference in their positions in the negotiations with Pakistan was huge, and a return to war would mean a repetition of the same “hellish dynamics“.
The heads of three major US oil companies have warned the Trump administration of the dire consequences of Iran's continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the potential for a worsening energy crisis, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources familiar with the situation.
Their warnings were sent to US Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum. The unnamed oil companies said a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas pass daily, could seriously disrupt global fuel supply chains.
According to the newspaper's sources, Treasury Secretary Scott Besant discussed with Trump the market reaction and the US economic outlook depending on the duration of the war. They discussed possible Treasury measures if the conflict drags on for 8-12 weeks, as well as the US's vulnerability to rising gasoline prices. Besant told the president that Asia and Europe would be most sensitive to rising energy prices.
The president is known to regularly monitor the stock market and the economy while considering policy decisions, the publication emphasizes.
After the start of the US-Israeli operation, Iran announced a suspension of trade through the Strait of Hormuz, through which 15-20% of the world's oil, condensate and petroleum products pass, as well as over 30% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz led to a rise in world oil prices. However, they fell after the agreement between the US and Iran for a two-week ceasefire, reached on April 8.
This happened just hours before the expiration of Trump's ultimatum, in which he threatened to destroy "Iranian civilization". However, since the ceasefire was announced, both sides have reported violations of the agreement: Trump accused Iran of trying to collect fees from the ships, while Tehran has said that there was no ceasefire in Lebanon at all.
Nevertheless, the parties met for talks in Islamabad on April 11. However, they failed to reach a deal. Vice President and head of the US delegation, J. D. Vance, said that the two sides had not reached a general agreement. Trump wrote that the meeting "went well" and that most issues had been agreed, with only the nuclear program remaining unresolved.
CNN reported, citing sources, that the Iranian delegation had made it clear that Tehran would not lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz until the parties reached a final agreement. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Tehran was facing American "maximalism" in the negotiations.
After the failure of the negotiations, the US President announced a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, this time by the United States. “From now on, the United States Navy, the best in the world, will begin the process of BLOCKING any ship attempting to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz,“ he wrote.