The global economy is at risk of recession if the war between the US and Israel with Iran continues and high energy prices persist. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned this, the BBC reported.
In a report "World Economic Prospects" It says that in the worst-case scenario - where oil, gas and food prices rise and remain high this year and next - global growth could fall below 2% in 2026.
The IMF explains that "it would mean a near-global recession, the likes of which have only happened four times since 1980".
Energy prices have risen sharply since the start of the war, which began on February 28, and which prompted Iran to close and mine the Strait of Hormuz.
"Once again, the global economy is threatened with being thrown off course - this time by the outbreak of war in the Middle East in late February 2026," the IMF said in its report.
According to the IMF, the most severe conditions that could lead to a slowdown in global economic growth would be included oil prices averaging $110 a barrel this year and $125 in 2027.
Based on these assumptions, the IMF said inflation could reach 6% next year. This could force central banks to raise interest rates to slow the pace of price increases.
The price of oil rose to nearly $120 during the Iran conflict but has since fallen to $98.85 a barrel of crude today.
The IMF also said the risk of a recession would only increase if the difficult conditions persisted for two years.
The fund said that if the conflict were resolved in the next few weeks and if Middle Eastern energy production and exports began to normalize by the middle of this year, global growth would slow to 3.1% in 2026, below an earlier forecast of 3.3%.
The IMF also left its forecast for global growth next year unchanged at 3.2%.
The fund It also predicted that Gulf oil exporters are likely to see a sharp slowdown in economic growth or even contraction this year.
Iran's economy will shrink by 6.1% this year, although the IMF forecasts a 3.2% recovery in 2027 - assuming the war ends in the next few weeks.
Qatar's economy will contract by 8.6% in 2026 before recovering to 8.6% growth next year, according to forecasts.
A country's economic resilience will depend on a number of factors, including damage to energy infrastructure, dependence on the Strait of Hormuz and the availability of alternative export routes, the IMF said.
Saudi Arabia's growth will slow in 2026, but the economy is still expected to expand by 3.1%, and next year it is expected to grow by 4.5%.
The IMF said most Middle Eastern oil exporters expected a rebound next year, "based on the assumption that energy production and transportation will normalize over the next few months".
But the IMF warned that this assumption "may need to be revised if the duration of the conflict is prolonged and the extent of the damage sustained is reassessed".