Gulf states fear that talks between the United States and Iran could lead to a limited agreement that guarantees shipping through the Strait of Hormuz but leaves broader threats to regional security unresolved, officials, diplomats and analysts quoted by "Reuters" said.
The next round of talks expected in Islamabad likely to focus on uranium enrichment limits and Iran's role in the Strait of Hormuz, a route through which about a fifth of the world's oil supplies pass.
Gulf officials warn that the approach risks cementing Iran's control over energy supplies from the Middle East, by managing rather than eliminating its influence, by prioritizing global economic stability, even while leaving the countries most exposed to the energy and security consequences out of formal decision-making.
"Ultimately, the Strait of Hormuz will be the red line," said a Gulf source close to government circles. "It wasn't a problem before. Now it is. The goals of the conflict have changed."
The concerns were heightened after former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev published an article in X on April 8: "It is unclear how the truce between Washington and Tehran will develop," Medvedev said. "But one thing is certain - Iran has tested its "nuclear weapon". It is called the Strait of Hormuz. Its potential is inexhaustible."
Iranian security sources describe the strait as a key deterrent. "Iran has been preparing for years for a scenario involving the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, planning every step," a senior source said. He called the strait a "golden, priceless asset." Analysts say the problem for Arab states is that the talks are focused on the global economic impact of the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran's and its regional allies' missile programs take a back seat. "What is taking shape today is not a historic agreement," Ebtesam Al-Ketbi of the Emirates Policy Center told Reuters, "but a deliberate design for a sustained conflict." The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, which began on Feb. 28, has already raised the cost of exports, insurance and protecting energy infrastructure in the Gulf. Diplomats say regional officials are pushing for a gradual easing of sanctions and for Gulf states to be included in decisions.
"The United States is an integral part of regional security...", said Abdulaziz Sager of the Saudi Arabian Gulf Research Center. "But that does not mean unilateral action — full-scale action without the region's participation."
Gulf Arab leaders say they have long warned Washington about conflict with Iran but have remained publicly silent since the war began. The restraint reflects not only diplomacy but also uncertainty about a conflict they are paying for in economic damage and defense spending but do not control. Now, as Washington and Tehran negotiate, Gulf officials say their exclusion from the talks is no longer a regional issue but a global one, given the international importance of the Strait of Hormuz.