The debate about the attitude towards the far-right party "Alternative for Germany" (AfD) is intensifying even more a few months before important elections for state parliaments in Germany. More and more citizens apparently no longer consider a change of power in one of the federal states impossible, the "Frankfurter Rundschau" newspaper points out.
For the centrist parties, this makes a strategic question increasingly urgent: does distancing from the AfD still work - or does it ultimately strengthen the party that should be weakened?
According to a study by the Insa sociological agency for the "Bild am Sonntag" newspaper A significant majority of Germans believe that the political center is under increasing pressure: if the Bundestag elections were held next Sunday, according to current surveys, the AfD would emerge as the strongest political party. Against this background, "Bild" wants to find out: how likely do Germans think the AfD will have its own state prime minister? Does the so-called firewall ultimately help even the party, which is in some parts far-right? And should the AfD be banned?
Sixty-nine percent of those surveyed believe that it is likely that the far-right will have its own prime minister after the upcoming parliamentary elections in at least one federal state. Forty-one percent expect this to happen in one state, and a further 28 percent - even in several states.
The Insa survey puts the debate about the "firewall" under pressure and strengthens the AfG.
The survey is also explosive because of the fact that elections are due in September in Saxony-Anhalt (September 6), Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin (both on September 20). In Saxony-Anhalt in particular, the AfG is performing extremely well according to the surveys. The AfG's leading candidate, Ulrich Sigmund, has already announced his goal of taking power with an absolute majority, the "Frankfurter Rundschau" reports.
At the same time, the survey shows how difficult the situation could become for the CDU. If the AfG becomes the strongest party but does not achieve an absolute majority, 40 percent of those surveyed would rather prefer a coalition of the CDU with "The Left". Thirty-six percent would rather cooperate with the AfG. Among CDU supporters, the picture is even clearer: 48 percent would rather support cooperation with the "Left", and 27 percent with the AfD.
CDU voters prefer a coalition with the "Left" to the AfD
This is politically delicate because the CDU, through a decision at the party congress, ruled out the possibility of coalition cooperation with both the "Left" and the AfD. In Saxony-Anhalt, however, CDU deputy chairman Andre Schröder has already indicated, according to DPA, that the possibility of a minority government cannot be ruled out. The decision prohibits a coalition with the "Left", but not cooperation in specific cases...
The so-called "firewall" itself, i.e. distancing itself from the AfD, is losing significant support in the poll. Almost half (45 percent) of those surveyed are convinced that the separation is more helpful to the AfD. Only 30 percent do not share this opinion, and 25 percent are undecided. For the survey, Insa surveyed 1,003 people on May 28 and 29.
YouGov puts AfD ahead of the CDU - Merz loses support
Other surveys also show how strong the AfD is at the moment. In a Sunday survey by the YouGov sociological agency in May, the AfD reached 28 percent, thus overtaking the CDU/CSU by six points. The CDU/CSU reached 22 percent, the SPD and the Greens each had 13 percent, and the "Left" -11 percent.
YouGov also reported falling support for the "firewall". Forty-six percent believe it is right that other parties in the Bundestag rule out coalitions with the AfD, while 41 percent believe it is wrong. In February 2025, 54 percent still believed that the separation from the far right was right. Approval has fallen particularly among CDU/CSU voters: 50 percent there believe the "firewall" is right, which is nine points less than in February 2025.
AfD ban divides respondents in new Insa survey
The Insa survey also shows a division of opinion on the issue of a ban on the AfD. Forty-seven percent of those surveyed are rather against a ban procedure, while 38 percent are rather in favor. The position of CDU/CSU supporters is particularly telling: 51 percent there support the ban by a narrow majority, while 35 percent are against it.
This shows a political contradiction. Many CDU supporters reject cooperation with the AfD or, in case of doubt, even prefer the "Left Party". At the same time, however, the pressure is growing on the CDU to find a practical answer given the difficult majority ratios in the eastern German states.
The dispute over the course towards the AfD has reached the SPD, the CDU and the municipalities
The debate is now extending far beyond the CDU. Former SPD Prime Minister Torsten Albig has called for a rethink of the previous strict separation from the AfD. He told the "Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung": "If 30 percent vote for this party, we cannot pretend for a long time that it is a child of hell."
This has provoked a sharp reaction within the SPD. Former Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz wrote in an article for "Zeit": "You can't govern a country with the AfG." Scholz justified this by the party's anti-pluralist orientation and warned against forming a government dependent on it.
According to the specialist magazine "Politics and Communication", a new analysis of municipal debates shows that the separation from the AfG is not just a theatrical performance for federal politics. For a study, political scientists Paul Reimers and Lars Rumpf analyzed statements from district councils. The result: even in less visible parliaments, the AfG is viewed mostly negatively by other parties.
However, the researchers also found differences. Especially on specific topics, there are individual cases in which the AfG's positions are explicitly confirmed or legitimized. The analysis points to 23 cases of legitimization and seven cases of explicit support. Spokespersons for the CDU and independent local lists make up the majority of these cases.
AfG prepares for government participation
The AfG itself is already considering a possible government participation. According to information from the DPA, in April in Berlin, senior representatives from the federal government, the federal states and the European Parliament discussed strategies against the "firewall" and issues related to future work in the government. Former State Secretary of the Austrian Freedom Party Hubert Fuchs was also invited.
According to the participants, the discussion was, among other things, about recruitment. MEPs from the AfG also reported that cooperation with right-wing parties in the EP is only "the tip of the iceberg". According to the participants, the topic concerned, among other things, recruitment. The AfD in the European Parliament also stated that cooperation with right-wing parties in the EP is only “the tip of the iceberg“. It will be clear in the autumn whether such simulations will become a political reality.
The dispute over the "firewall" has long been more than a tactical debate. It concerns the issue of power in the states, the Union strategy and the self-confidence of the SPD, the Greens and the Left. The stronger the AfD becomes around Alice Weidel and Tino Krupala, the greater the pressure on those parties that rule out cooperation.
The new Insa survey, but also other surveys, increasingly show or confirm one thing: many citizens are now counting on scenarios that were long considered unthinkable. At the same time, cooperation with the AfD continues to be strongly contested. For the centrist parties, the elections in the autumn will be a test of whether their differentiation will work – or AwG will continue to benefit politically from the "firewall" debate, notes "Frankfurter Rundschau".