The events of recent days in Ukraine and Russia have radically changed the picture of the war, as well as the attitude towards the Russian aggressor, writes Igor Bondar in a commentary published by The Hill, writes Focusl.
A telling sign of this change has recently appeared: for the first time in almost 20 years, Russia held its festive annual parade on Red Square without tanks and missiles. Putin was forced to cancel the participation of heavy military equipment for fear of a Ukrainian strike.
In recent weeks, perceptions of Russia have changed around the world. Russia’s ideological expansion has not been supported by events on the cultural front either: a recent protest by the Russian rock band Pussy Riot disrupted the government’s efforts to include Russia in European cultural policy through art during an event in Venice.
Putin has also abruptly changed his rhetoric regarding Ukraine. He no longer calls the authorities in Kiev “drug addicts” and “neo-Nazis” who have “taken the entire Ukrainian people hostage.” Instead, he now politely addresses the Ukrainian president as “Mr. Zelensky.” He even seems to be opening up the possibility of a meeting with him.
The reasons are clear. The Russian dictator has truly felt the power of the Ukrainian army. Its strikes deep into Russian territory are causing serious damage to the Russian military machine and the morale of the population. Meanwhile, Russia is trying to use its missiles and drones primarily to terrorize Ukrainian civilians and destroy cultural assets like the Chernobyl museum, with much less effect on the Ukrainian army.
Ukrainian forces have already destroyed the Tuapse oil terminal four times in two weeks. They have also struck the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga. Even as far east, in the Urals, they are destroying air defense systems faster than Russia can replace them.
Along with the dramatic explosions in Tuapse and Ust-Luga, there is another important sign of Russia’s slide toward defeat. Thanks to Ukrainian drones, the tactics of warfare are changing. The logistical control established by these Ukrainian air forces has led to numerous strikes on enemy equipment behind the front line near Mariupol. It also allowed for fire control on the roads around Donetsk.
Thus, the massive strikes more than 1,200 kilometers deep into Russian territory, carried out by the Ukrainian army with drones, demonstrated the effectiveness of this strategy. This changed not only Putin’s presidential rhetoric – as he is afraid of Ukrainian drones over Red Square – but also the very map of the Russian-Ukrainian front.
We can also argue that the Ukrainian army is changing its tactics of waging war, applying a model of technological siege against occupied territories. Instead of the classic encirclement of cities by infantry and tanks, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are moving to a complete fire blockade of enemy logistics through the massive use of drones.
As a result, all territory occupied by Russian troops and outside Ukrainian control will sooner or later become deadly dangerous for the Russians. Donetsk and Lugansk may eventually be surrounded – not by heavy Ukrainian equipment, but by Ukrainian drones. Such is the logic of modern warfare, introduced by Ukraine.
The reality on the front is even harsher. In April, for the first time since 2024, Russia lost more territory than it gained. And for the fifth month in a row, Ukraine is killing Russian servicemen faster than Putin can recruit replacements. In total, nearly 500,000 Russian soldiers have been killed during the years of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and many more have been wounded.
All of this – including the Russian president’s shift in rhetoric, the ability of Ukrainian forces to disrupt enemy logistics in Russia, and the gradual loss of territory by the Russians – points to a weakened Russia, perhaps headed for a humiliating end.