So far, Minsk has supported Russian aggression against Ukraine rather passively. However, Kiev fears that the threat from Belarus could become serious, writes the German public media ARD.
For weeks now, the state and military leadership of Ukraine, including President Zelensky, have been insistently warning about the danger of a new front in the north. "Our intelligence services have determined that the danger of a Russian attack from Belarus is growing", said the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Oleksandr Syrsky, in a television interview.
Even during the Russian invasion in February 2022, the territory of Belarus and the over 1,000-kilometer long common border with Ukraine played a significant role. Russian troops invaded Ukrainian soil from there and headed for Kiev. Syrsky did not specify whether the warning refers to a new attack by Russia or to an attack in which this time Belarusian troops could also participate.
"Escalation could occur at any time"
Analysts see another potential risk. From the territory of Belarus, Russia could target the roads along which Ukraine receives military aid from the West. From the north, for example, it could use drones to bomb the M-06 highway, which connects Kiev with Lviv and the Ukrainian-Hungarian border crossing at Chop.
This scenario was described, for example, by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in a report from late May. The Belarusian opposition group "Railway Workers' Society" recently stated that they have information about the deployment of the "Oreshnik" missile in Belarus. They claim that Russia transported it to a former military airfield in Belarus. The "Oreshnik" is a medium-range missile that can carry nuclear warheads. It is capable of hitting any point on the European continent, ARD explains.
Last week, Belarusian oppositionist Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who was on her first official visit to Kiev, drew attention to the ongoing military cooperation between Russia and Belarus, including joint nuclear exercises. "Zelensky said that an escalation could occur at any time, and I completely agree with him," Tikhanovskaya told ARD.
In the 2020 presidential election, she ran against longtime leader Lukashenko and - contrary to official reports - she probably received the most votes. Mass protests in support of Tikhanovskaya followed in Belarus, and she herself left the country for fear of reprisals.
Until recently, Zelensky refrained from officially inviting Tikhanovskaya so as not to further worsen relations with Lukashenko. The signal contained in his current invitation to her is that Kiev actually considers Tikhanovskaya to be the legitimate president of Belarus. She could also support a possible coup in Ukraine's northern neighbor.
This would also be possible due to the fact that Belarusian oppositionists are already fighting in the ranks of Ukraine - in the "Kalinovsky" regiment. Some observers in Kiev are even calling on Ukraine to form a new political opposition against Lukashenko, which would be composed of representatives of this regiment. "They could gain more influence in Belarus than Ms. Tikhanovskaya", believes political scientist Lyudmila Pokrovshchuk. "Because in the eyes of Belarusians, soldiers look like more convincing opponents of Lukashenko."
Hints and threats from Lukashenko
An even clearer warning to Lukashenko was issued by the commander of the Ukrainian drone units, Robert Brovdy. On Facebook, he wrote that Ukraine had already identified 500 targets in Belarus that it would attack if necessary. Lukashenko, in turn, responded with a threat. "We also know one target in Ukraine, very serious, with precise coordinates, not far from Belarus," he told a reporter for Russian state television.
According to some observers, Lukashenko is referring to a nuclear power plant, for example the one in Rivne, which is less than 80 kilometers from the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. Other experts suggest that Lukashenko's statement hints at a possible personal attack on Zelensky.
Author: Florian Kellermann (ARD)