While still celebrating his 80th birthday, Donald Trump was quick to announce that a peace agreement had been reached between the US and Iran. But the big news is actually a big admission that Trump lost this war, as noted by a number of American media outlets.
The regime in Tehran won
J.D. Vance has already revealed that the agreement to be signed this Friday in Geneva is “only a page and a half” and is “very general”. However, the goals that the US has not achieved in the last nearly four months are specific: The regime in Tehran remains intact, and the power of the ayatollahs and especially the Revolutionary Guards seems to be solidified.
The regime is using the conflict for internal consolidation and intensifying repression. And although much of the fleet and air force have been destroyed, Iran still has enough missiles and drones. At the same time, billions will be unfrozen and will flow to the country as part of the deal with Washington, which means more funds for arming and strengthening proxy organizations in the region. One of them is Hezbollah in Lebanon, which continues to fight against Israel.
Iran will continue to instrumentalize the Strait of Hormuz
The frozen assets will not be the only inflow of money. In recent months, Iran has shown how it can use the Strait of Hormuz for economic and political pressure on the entire world. It is now expected to open on Friday.
The authorities in Tehran have already announced that they will not impose transit fees, but they may demand fees for the services provided. What these services are, it has not been clear. International regulations do not allow countries to receive fees for transiting a natural waterway. The situation is different with artificial canals such as the Suez and Panama Canals. However, Iran already knows that its geographical location allows it to take advantage of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has not lost influence, unlike the US and Israel
Iran's influence in the region has not suffered either, on the contrary. The regime has shown that it can survive even massive attacks from the US and Israel - countries considered hegemons by most of Washington's partners in the Middle East. The trust of these partners - from the UAE to Qatar - that the US can protect them seems seriously shaken after the heavy Iranian strikes in the region.
Netanyahu was forced by Trump to accept the peace agreement without having participated in its negotiation at all. The Iranians tied the laying down of weapons to the cessation of clashes in Lebanon, and Trump insisted that Netanyahu not escalate the situation. Meanwhile, tensions between them have risen. When Netanyahu was planning a major strike on Beirut in early June, an angry Trump reportedly told him in a phone call: “If it weren’t for me, you’d be in jail right now.”
Retreat, loss, capitulation, hubris
Trump began this war promising to end the regime in Tehran, its nuclear ambitions, and its ballistic missile program. But the regime is still there and appears stable. The ballistic missile program is too, and any progress on Iran’s nuclear program will not surpass the 2015 deal that Obama negotiated with Iran. Trump canceled this deal in 2018 and declared it the “worst in history”.
Retreat, loss, capitulation, hubris - these are the words that most American media use in their comments on the announced agreement. They seem to fit almost every American military engagement in the Middle East in recent decades. This time, however, the price is especially high - after the end of the war, the US will bear the reputational damage from the failure in this war, the world will have to pay the economic consequences, and the people of Iran - will suffer under the scourge of a brutal and increasingly radical regime.
Alexander Detev editor