North Korea last week took a new step in its efforts to turn its naval forces into an integral part of nuclear deterrence, after leader Kim Jong-un officially commissioned the first North Korean destroyer, the "Choe Hyon", and announced an ambitious program to build even larger warships, "NBC News" reported, BTA.
Although the North Korean navy has traditionally remained in the shadow of the ballistic missile-armed missile and ground forces, analysts believe that Pyongyang is striving for a qualitative change - creating a naval platform capable of carrying nuclear weapons and extending the reach of North Korean deterrence far beyond coastal waters. This raises the question of how realistic these ambitions are and what we actually know about the regime's new warships.
The "Choe Hyun" ship, named after a prominent North Korean military leader, is the largest warship ever built in North Korea, notes "NBC News". According to official information, its displacement is about 5,000 tons - more than twice that of all previous ships of the North Korean navy. According to information from the state agency KCTA, the ship is equipped with anti-aircraft and anti-ship systems, as well as launchers for ballistic and cruise missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Although these claims cannot be independently verified, Western experts believe that this is North Korea's most serious attempt to create a multi-purpose warship by modern standards.
During the ceremony for the ship's commissioning, Kim Jong-un said that it ends the "more than 70 years of backwardness" of the North Korean naval forces, according to "NBC News". According to Kim, the North's fleet will no longer be limited to coastal defense, but will be able to operate on the high seas and perform new strategic tasks. The North Korean leader also announced that the program to equip the fleet with nuclear weapons is progressing according to plan and promised to build two even larger warships every year, including cruisers with a displacement of about 10,000 tons.
These statements signal a significant change in North Korean military strategy, commented "NBC News". For decades, Pyongyang's nuclear deterrent was based almost entirely on ballistic missiles launched from land-based mobile launchers. However, in recent years, the regime has begun to consistently develop the naval component of its nuclear forces – through tests of ballistic missiles launched from submarines, presentation of a project for a nuclear-powered submarine and development of unmanned underwater systems.
According to analysts, this change is due not only to technological considerations, but also to the changed international situation, writes the "New York Times". After the failure of negotiations with the United States in 2019, North Korea finally abandoned the idea of gradual denuclearization in exchange for easing sanctions. Instead, Kim Jong-un began an accelerated expansion of both the country's nuclear and conventional military potential. Military cooperation with Russia after the start of the war in Ukraine, as well as the warming of relations with China, created a feeling in Pyongyang that international isolation no longer represents such a serious obstacle to the modernization of the army.
It is precisely the possible Russian assistance that is one of the most discussed topics among specialists, the newspaper notes. South Korean experts believe that some of the weapons tested by "Choe Hyon", including a hypersonic cruise missile, demonstrate characteristics reminiscent of similar Russian technologies. Analyst Moon Seon-mook of the Korea Institute for National Strategy suggests that Moscow may have provided equipment, technical expertise and manufacturing experience in exchange for North Korean military aid to Russia. Although direct evidence of such a technology transfer is currently lacking, such assumptions are increasingly present in the assessments of Western analysts.
At the same time, a number of experts warn that one should not judge the ship solely by its appearance, commented the "New York Times". Although the destroyer is impressive at first glance with its size and the large number of missile launchers it has, modern warships are evaluated primarily by the quality of radars, combat control systems, missile defense and the ability to operate as part of a larger naval group. It is in these areas that North Korea probably continues to lag significantly behind the leading naval powers in the region.
Regardless of the demonstrated ambitions, military experts agree that the real test for the new ships is yet to come, the newspaper points out. Building a large destroyer is only the first step. Maintaining it in constant combat readiness is much more difficult. According to Hong Min of the Korea Institute for National Unification, North Korea will have to overcome serious limitations related to logistics, maintenance, crew training and the ability to conduct integrated operations between different types of armed forces. These are the factors that distinguish the modern ocean-going military fleets of countries such as the United States, South Korea and Japan from the North Korean navy, he points out.
Scepticism is also aroused by the technical characteristics of the "Choe Hyun", commented "The New York Times. Analysts note that the ship appears to have a large number of vertical launchers, but shows no signs of being equipped with modern multi-purpose radars and missile defense systems comparable to the American "Aegis" system or those of South Korean and Japanese destroyers. The former rector of the University of North Korean Studies, Yang Mu-jin, defines the ship as a "strike destroyer loaded with various missiles" rather than a full-fledged multi-purpose warship capable of surviving in the conditions of modern high-tech warfare, including massive missile strikes and drone attacks.
However, this does not mean that the program is devoid of strategic importance, writes the "Guardian". Even if the new ships cannot successfully oppose American or South Korean ships in a direct collision, they could perform another task - to provide Pyongyang with additional mobile platforms for launching missiles with conventional or nuclear warheads. Thus, a potential adversary will be forced to monitor not only mobile land-based installations, but also warships, which significantly complicates the planning of a possible preemptive strike. This is what many analysts believe to be the basic military logic of the program.
The program for building the new destroyers must be seen in the broader context of Kim Jong-un's desire to expand North Korea's nuclear arsenal more and more rapidly, the newspaper points out. In recent years, the regime has invested simultaneously in intercontinental ballistic missiles, tactical nuclear weapons, submarine systems and new means of delivering nuclear warheads. According to experts, the goal is no longer simply to maintain a minimum level of deterrence, but to build up such a large and diverse nuclear potential that it cannot be destroyed with a single strike, thus making possible denuclearization negotiations practically impossible.
This strategy is likely to have been influenced by international conflicts in recent years, notes the "Guardian". Analyst Peter Ward of the "Sejong" Institute believes that the leadership in Pyongyang has learned from the fate of countries that do not have a fully developed nuclear deterrent system. According to him, North Korea is building an increasingly diverse arsenal - mobile launchers, underground facilities, submarines, and now surface warships - so that no potential adversary can be sure that it will be able to destroy all the means of retaliatory strike. It is this logic that lies behind the desire to diversify the carriers of nuclear weapons.
The development of the naval forces also has an important domestic political dimension, notes the Associated Press. The presentation of the largest warship in North Korea's history allows Kim to demonstrate to his own population that the country continues to develop its defense industry despite international sanctions. Such projects strengthen the North's propaganda message that North Korea has created an independent defense industry and can resist pressure from the United States and its allies. In this sense, the new destroyers are not only a military but also a political tool for strengthening the regime's authority.
The response from neighboring countries shows that they take the program seriously, despite existing doubts about the real capabilities of the ships, the AP commented. South Korea has already announced a massive expansion of its unmanned weapons forces, including the acquisition of more than 20,000 reconnaissance and strike drones and the training of hundreds of thousands of military personnel to operate such systems. According to Seoul, this is necessary both because of the accelerated modernization of the North Korean army and because of the alleged transfer of Russian military technology to Pyongyang.
It is difficult to assess whether North Korea will actually be able to fulfill Kim Jong-un's promise to build two new large warships each year, the AP points out. Such a program would pose a huge financial and technological challenge even for much more developed countries. Whether or not these plans are fully implemented, their announcement demonstrates that Pyongyang no longer sees its navy as a secondary force, but as a key element of its future nuclear deterrent. This is perhaps the most important implication of the commissioning of the "Choe Hyon" - not that North Korea has suddenly become a major naval power, but that it is gradually seeking to build a diverse nuclear capability capable of challenging any attempt at military deterrence or coercion. How successful this endeavor will be will depend not only on the regime's ability to build new ships, but also on whether it can turn them into a truly effective tool for waging modern warfare, the agency concludes.