The arrival of two American aircraft at the Bezmer air base over the weekend has sparked debates about the foreign policy of Prime Minister Rumen Radev. "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" (FAC) reminds us on this occasion that as President, Radev constantly declared himself against providing military support to Ukraine. The arguments - that Russian aggression could not be stopped by military means. Moreover, a small country like Bulgaria could not afford to take sides in the war, as it would then be under the threat of becoming a military target in its turn.
What is different about the US war?
The second argument in particular resonated with a part of the population - and has now been taken up by Iranian politicians. The regime in Tehran has repeatedly warned that the deployment of tanker aircraft not far from Bulgaria's borders with Turkey and Greece could turn Bulgaria into a party to the war. This puts Radev in an explanatory mode in domestic politics because of the following question, points out Michael Martens in the FACS: why are his warnings that Bulgaria should refrain from participating in wars in this case not valid?
The German media recalls that after the vote on the decision to deploy the planes in parliament, a spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry described it as "dangerous" and threatened that it could be interpreted as an act of aggression.
The pressure increased even more after a telephone conversation between Bulgarian Foreign Minister Velislava Petrova and her Iranian counterpart Abbas Araqchi, for which both sides came up with different versions. The Bulgarian statement emphasized diplomatic banalities such as the claim of supposedly good bilateral relations, while the Iranian one heard something different: that the Iranian minister not only described the decision as "reprehensible" and "unacceptable", and asked Radev's government to "urgently reconsider the step". The warning was also issued that based on this decision, Bulgaria could be classified as an aggressor.
Radev tried to calm his compatriots with words like "I do not expect a factual deterioration in relations", writes FACS. The publication also quotes the following words of the prime minister before the parliament: "If we do not fulfill our obligations to the US, how could we expect them to fulfill theirs to us?" But this did not calm spirits completely, notes Michael Martens. Protests were held in Bezmer, in which people from Sofia, Plovdiv and other cities also participated.
The emergence of a real threat to Bulgaria is rather unlikely, FACS points out. On the one hand, the presence of American soldiers at the base is nothing new - Bulgaria, which has been a NATO member since 2004, signed a military cooperation agreement with the United States in 2006, which allows the American armed forces to use the Bezmer base. Moreover, as military experts point out, it would hardly be in Tehran's interest to attack a NATO country for the sake of tanker aircraft and thus provoke a response. Added to this is the fact that on their way to Bulgaria, Iranian missiles would have to cross the territory of NATO country Turkey.
In domestic politics, however, Radev's reputation has received its first small scratch, believes Michael Martens. The prime minister continues to be the most popular politician in the country, but unlike during presidential terms, he can no longer comment on what is happening as a supposedly disinterested observer - he must act and make decisions. His attempt to tie the negotiations on the deployment of the aircraft to the lifting of the visa regime for Bulgaria when traveling to the US failed completely. And the first budget adopted by his government has a record deficit for Bulgarian conditions, according to the FAC.
Radev is trying to satisfy many at once
The German media quotes Vessela Cherneva, deputy director of the European Council on Foreign Policy, as saying: "During his election campaign, Radev wanted to attract the widest possible public spectrum. And in order to satisfy all groups, he had to adopt a budget with a deficit of 5.7 percent - a real novelty in the last two decades." Cherneva also says that the prime minister is trying to satisfy many at once, not only in domestic politics, but also in foreign policy. By rejecting military support for Ukraine while simultaneously justifying logistical support for US military operations in the Middle East, Radev hopes to "preserve US security guarantees without Bulgaria assuming obligations in relation to the evolving European security architecture".
A similar opinion was expressed to the FAC by the head of the Sofia office of the German "Konrad Adenauer" Foundation, Norbert Beckmann-Dirkes: "Prime Minister Rumen Radev is clearly trying to maneuver between the EU, NATO and the USA on the one hand and Russia on the other". This vacillating policy is reminiscent of the maneuvering of Serbian President Vučić, believes Michael Martens. But he emphasizes that, unlike Bulgaria, Serbia is not a member of either NATO or the EU.