Lithuania has warned that there is a possibility that Russia could conduct a covert operation against NATO's eastern flank, using captured Ukrainian drones to sow discord (a false flag operation).
This is according to the "Institute for the Study of War" (ISW).
Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas said yesterday that Russia could use Ukrainian-made drones for provocation against the Baltic states. A similar warning was issued by Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosyniak-Kamiś in July, warning of sabotage against NATO.
The Ukrainian military publication Militarny reported last week that Russia may already be using captured Ukrainian long-range drones for alleged provocations. The publication cited photos published by the former Ukrainian presidential adviser on defense technologies and expert in military radio technology, Serhiy Beskrestnov (call sign "Flash").
Latvian Defense Minister Raivis Melnis said yesterday that there were no signs of an imminent threat of Russia attacking infrastructure in Latvia.
The Institute for the Study of War predicts that Russia may be conducting a campaign aimed at creating information and psychological conditions for future provocations against NATO. The alleged maneuvers include violations of the airspace of allied countries, sabotage, electronic jamming, overflights and false flag operations.
Meanwhile, Russia is likely continuing to form combat units using Ukrainian prisoners of war, which is in violation of the Geneva Convention. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced yesterday the formation of the first Ukrainian volunteer special operations brigade, which is believed to be composed of Ukrainian prisoners of war and former Ukrainian servicemen who allegedly defected to the Russian side.
The brigade was formed by uniting several irregular formations. According to at least one Russian military blogger, it includes Ukrainian prisoners of war.
ISW recalls that according to the Geneva Convention, prisoners of war should not be placed on the battlefield, where they may be exposed to fire, and they cannot be forced to work in dangerous working conditions. It also prohibits their use in hostilities on the side of the force that captured them.
The ISW first reviewed reports of the use of Ukrainian prisoners of war in Russian combat formations in November 2022, with the last known case being the "Bogdan Khmelnytsky" battalion in December 2023, which was active in western Donetsk Oblast.
Ukrainian Brigadier General Serhiy Sobko has reportedly become Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He was previously Chief of Staff of the 11th Army Corps and Chief of Staff of the Territorial Defense Forces.