The Strait of Hormuz has become one of the central instruments of pressure for Iran in the war with the US and Israel, and restrictions on shipping are already affecting global energy markets. This was stated by former Defense Minister Angel Naydenov in an interview with News.bg.
Before the start of the conflict, about 125 large commercial ships passed through the strait daily, carrying oil, liquefied natural gas and other cargo. The flow has sharply decreased since the start of the war, although in recent weeks there have been signs of a partial recovery. According to Reuters, in September, crude oil exports through Hormuz reached about 9.7 million barrels per day, which remains below pre-conflict levels.
Naydenov points out that according to the data he discusses in the interview, significantly fewer ships have passed through the strait in recent days. He notes that some vessels may not be counted when they turn off their automatic identification systems.
Hormuz is of particular importance to the global economy, as before the conflict, approximately one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies passed through it.
Iran proposes seven-day plan
Against this backdrop, Tehran has proposed a scheme for the gradual opening of the strait. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the country is ready to restore shipping and resume nuclear talks with the United States if Washington meets certain conditions.
The plan provides for a seven-day period, which begins after its acceptance by the American side. Among the conditions are a ceasefire, lifting the American naval blockade, easing sanctions on Iranian oil and releasing frozen Iranian assets. The proposal also includes a cessation of hostilities in Lebanon.
The American side has confirmed that contacts with Iran continue through intermediaries, but serious disagreements remain between the two sides. According to the AP, the negotiations are aimed at restoring shipping through Hormuz and ending the conflict, but there is still no final agreement.
Naydenov notes that even if the strait is opened, shipping does not necessarily have to immediately return to normal conditions. Higher military risk could keep insurance premiums and transportation costs high.
Pressure on oil markets
The restrictions on shipping are already having an impact on energy prices. On October 1, Brent futures rose above $100 a barrel, amid renewed tension over the possibility of the United States resuming large-scale strikes on Iran.
At the same time, some exports from the Persian Gulf states are recovering. Saudi Arabia has resumed loading oil from Yanbu on the Red Sea through its strategic East-West pipeline, allowing some supplies to bypass Hormuz.
According to Naydenov, however, the economic impact is not limited to oil. Delays in deliveries, higher transportation costs and insurance could push up prices for a wide range of goods.
Risk shifts to Bab el-Mandeb
The former defense minister also points to another key shipping route - the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden.
He said the activity of the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen poses an additional risk to international shipping. The AP also reports on the escalation of tensions around Bab el-Mandeb and on Houthis' actions that are further hampering shipping.
If traffic through the Red Sea is severely disrupted, ships could be forced to bypass Africa via the Cape of Good Hope. This lengthens routes between Asia and Europe and increases the cost of fuel, crews and insurance.
Tactical successes do not solve the conflict
In the interview, Naydenov makes a distinction between the military results of the US and Israel and the achievement of the strategic goals of the conflict.
According to him, US and Israeli forces have inflicted serious damage on parts of the Iranian air defense, air and naval capabilities, as well as on missile and drone complexes. However, he notes that this has not led to a change in the ruling regime in Tehran.
Naydenov defines this as the difference between tactical military results and the strategic achievement of the set goals.
What does this mean for Bulgaria
The consequences can also be felt in Bulgaria through international oil prices and transportation costs. The country does not rely directly on oil supplies through Hormuz, but movements in world prices also affect the Bulgarian fuel market.
Even with a possible agreement between Washington and Tehran, the restoration of normal shipping may be gradual. The question remains whether ship operators and insurers will accept the risk as completely removed.
Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb thus remain key points for the development of the conflict, as any permanent restriction of movement through them could have consequences for both regional security and international trade.