US President Donald Trump said that the conflict with Iran could end immediately after the midterm elections for Congress on November 3, 2026. He also predicted a sharp drop in oil prices after the vote, but did not specify a specific deadline or mechanism for ending the fighting.
“I think the war will end immediately after the elections, because they will not be able to hold out anymore“, Trump told journalists on September 9. According to him, Iran is continuing the conflict to politically harm the US administration before the elections.
No confirmed agreement between Washington and Tehran
Trump's forecast was not followed by a publicly announced peace agreement. On October 1, the president said that the United States could resume or intensify its bombing campaign against Iran after the election if a solution acceptable to Washington is not reached. He also said that he had rejected a recent Iranian proposal because he did not consider it sufficient.
Thus, the American position remains ambiguous: Trump has spoken both of a possible end to the conflict after the vote and of a new military escalation if negotiations fail. The Associated Press reported that Washington and Tehran continue to discuss a diplomatic option, but without an agreed final outcome.
Oil and the pressure before the election
Trump links the rise in oil prices to the conflict and to disruptions in supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. In September, the price of “Brent“ exceeded $100 a barrel, and higher fuel prices have become a political issue for Republicans ahead of the midterm elections.
On October 2, the G-7 countries agreed to release 100 million barrels of oil and fuel from their reserves after the US administration insisted that allies take measures to combat rising prices. At the same time, Trump continues to claim that prices will begin to fall sharply after the election.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard rejects the US assessment of the course of the conflict. According to it, the fighting can only end if Washington admits defeat and withdraws its forces. There is no confirmation yet that the two sides have reached an agreement to end the war.
Sources: UPI