Ukraine is sinking deeper into a demographic crisis in which deaths significantly outnumber births, while the war is accelerating the emigration of women, children and young people. In 2025, 168,780 births were registered compared with 485,300 deaths, according to data from Ukraine’s Ministry of Justice. The gap thus reached almost 2.9 times.
The trend also became clear in 2024. That year, 176,679 children were born in the country, while the number of deaths was 495,090. Births were 5.7% lower than the previous year, while the natural population decline exceeded 318,000 people.
The war is reducing the number of young families
The full-scale Russian invasion led to mass displacement and changed the structure of the population. Thousands of young mothers have left Ukraine with their children to protect them from Russian attacks and the uncertainty during the winter. At the same time, many men have been mobilized or are on the front line, further complicating the creation and maintenance of families.
The problem did not begin with the war. For years, Ukraine has faced low birth rates, an aging population and emigration. According to the Ukrainian Institute for Demography and Problems of Quality of Life, the fertility rate has fallen to around 0.9 children per woman. This is significantly below the level of 2.1 children needed for the natural reproduction of the population.
“While the return of peace to Ukraine is of paramount importance, much can already be done to strengthen human capital and lay the foundations for demographic recovery,” says Florence Bauer, regional director of the United Nations Population Fund for Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
The decline is most severe in frontline regions
Data for 2025 show the greatest imbalance between mortality and birth rates in Kherson and Donetsk regions. In Kherson region, deaths outnumber births by 11.9 to 1, while in Donetsk region the ratio is 11.2 to 1. In Zaporizhzhia region, the figure is 5.1 to 1; in Sumy region, 5.1 to 1; and in Kharkiv region, 4.9 to 1.
The figures in the western regions are more favorable, although still negative. In Rivne region, deaths outnumber births by 1.5 times; in Volyn region, by 1.7 times; and in Zakarpattia region, by 1.8 times.
The war is also affecting the structure of families. In 2024, 34,291 divorces were registered through administrative proceedings, along with another 1,311 through court proceedings. The separation of families because of mobilization, fleeing the hostilities and prolonged separation is becoming part of the broader demographic picture.
Millions of people are outside the country
The United Nations Population Fund estimates that since the conflict began in 2014, Ukraine has lost around 10 million people, with approximately 8 million of the decline occurring after Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. The estimate includes deaths, low birth rates, internal displacement and people leaving the country.
The exact population figure remains difficult to establish because some territories are occupied and millions of Ukrainians live abroad. The last national census was conducted in 2001. Therefore, population recovery will depend not only on the end of the war, but also on how many refugees return, whether young families remain in the country and what conditions are created for having and raising children.
Sources: thetimes.com, en.interfax.com.ua, unn.ua