Ukraine's operation in the Kursk region allowed Ukrainian forces to at least temporarily take the initiative on the battlefield in one area of the front line and challenge Russia's initiative in the entire theater of operations actions, which he has held since November 2023.
The Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region forced the Kremlin and the Russian military command to react and redirect forces and assets to the sector where Ukrainian forces launched attacks. However, Russian forces are not seriously noticeable with active operations in the Kursk region.
Russia continues to pressure Ukraine in various locations to prevent Ukrainian forces from building up manpower and materiel for future counteroffensive operations, while setting a pace of combat that will allow Russian forces to consistently maintain ongoing offensives operations.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian military command probably misjudged Ukraine's lack of capacity to challenge the initiative, and Ukraine's ability to achieve operational surprise and challenge the initiative across the entire theater of operations calls operational and strategic assumptions into question. on which the current Russian offensive efforts in Ukraine are based.
Ukraine's operation in the Kursk region and further possible Ukrainian cross-border incursions force the Kremlin and the Russian military command to decide whether to view the 1,000-kilometer international border with northeastern Ukraine as a legitimate frontline for Russia to defend. The international border with North-Eastern Ukraine is an inactive front following the Russian withdrawal from Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts from the spring of 2022 and the Ukrainian liberation of significant territory in Kharkiv Oblast in the autumn of 2022.
Effectively, this is exactly what Russian forces did, but vis-à-vis the Ukrainians, with the re-opening of a front in Kharkiv in early May 2024 to engage and pin down Ukrainian forces along the border in the hope of weakening the overall Ukrainian frontline as a whole .
But the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region will force the Kremlin to make a decision, as the current Ukrainian incursion poses a significant threat to Russian military operations in Ukraine, as well as to the stability of the Putin regime.
Russia's continued treatment of the international border zone as a dormant front line is a strategic failure.
The response that Moscow has decided to take may impose on the Russian military command limitations in long-term operational planning that Russia has not yet faced. This will limit the flexibility that Russia has enjoyed in committing manpower and equipment to its current offensive efforts in Ukraine, and the Russian military command will have to consider border defense requirements when determining what resources it can devote to future large-scale offensive and defensive efforts in Ukraine.
Geolocated footage and Russian and Ukrainian reports from August 10 and 11 indicate that Ukrainian forces have advanced west and northwest into Kursk Oblast, although Russian sources say Russian forces have stabilized the situation.
In the Kursk region, Russia responded with a hastily assembled and disparate force group that was poorly prepared and lacked good coordination. The redeployment of battalion and lower-ranking units, rather than entire brigades and regiments, to the defense in the Kursk region likely contributes to the difficulties of Russian forces. Ukrainian military observer Kostantin Mashovets reported on August 11 that Russian forces have so far transferred about 10-11 battalions from across the theater of operations to Kursk Oblast, but suggested that these battalion units are below their intended final strength, possibly further exacerbating the disorganization of the Russian response.
The disorganized nature of regular Russian battalions, combined with Russia's decision to entrust the protection of the Kursk region to the Federal Security Service (FSB) rather than the Ministry of Defense (MoD), as well as the inclusion of conscripts, FSB officers and elements of the Russian Guard in hostilities, will hinder Russia's efforts to establish an effective defense. Mashovets estimates that Russian forces are likely trying to buy time for a further, more comprehensive redeployment of defense forces in the Kursk region and are focusing on minimizing Ukrainian offensive efforts.
The Russian opposition media "Verstka" reported that conscripts serving in the border area of the Kursk region at the beginning of the Ukrainian operation did not receive any orders before the operation began and could not carry out the order to retreat due to Ukrainian mortar fire. "Verstka" estimates that Russian forces are likely trying to round up conscripts in the Kursk region to return them to their units.
There is no evidence that Ukrainian forces are operating outside the immediate border zone in Belovsky District. Several Russian military bloggers claim that Ukrainian forces with a significant number of equipment and armored vehicles crossed the border with Sumy Oblast in the area of Kucherovka and Goptarovka on the evening of August 10 and rapidly advanced towards Belaya and the surrounding area. Russian military bloggers described the event as a Ukrainian breakthrough and claimed that Ukrainian forces quickly seized tactically significant territory, although subsequent Russian claims indicated that the Ukrainian groups did not attempt to seize ground and exaggerated the successes of the Ukrainian groups.
A senior Ukrainian defense official reported that Russian forces had somewhat reduced the intensity of attacks in eastern Ukraine, but that otherwise the situation remained largely unchanged amid the Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast, which is consistent with ISW observations of the pace of the Russian offensive throughout the theater.
Russian forces have recently advanced near Kupyansk and the city of Donetsk and are maintaining a similar pace of advance towards Pokrovsk.
A Ukrainian official told AFP that Russian forces continued to put pressure on Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine and that the Russian military command had not withdrawn its troops from eastern Ukraine.