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ISW: Vladimir Putin's nuclear threats should not scare the West

The rhetoric was more likely part of a standard information operation aimed at curbing Western aid to Ukraine than an indication of Russia's readiness to use nuclear weapons

Sep 9, 2024 17:47 204

ISW: Vladimir Putin's nuclear threats should not scare the West  - 1

Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director William Burns has warned the West not to be alarmed by Russia's nuclear weapons rattle, which the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has long identified as part of the Kremlin's efforts to encourage Western deterrence . In addition, these threats can also influence the actions of the West towards Ukraine.

During a discussion with British intelligence chief Richard Moore, Byrne said Russian President Vladimir Putin would continue to periodically threaten direct confrontation with the West, but those threats should not scare the West.

The CIA has assessed that Russian forces may have considered using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine in the fall of 2022, when Russian nuclear rhetoric intensified in the context of the successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kherson and Kharkiv regions.< /p>

But even then, this rhetoric was more likely part of a standard information operation aimed at limiting Western aid to Ukraine than an indication of Russia's readiness to use nuclear weapons.

The Kremlin has repeatedly used thinly veiled threats of a nuclear standoff between Russia and the West at key moments in Western political discussions about further military aid to Ukraine to stoke fear among decision-makers.

ISW assesses that Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, or anywhere else.

Russian bloggers following the war in Ukraine continue to claim that the Kremlin is working with selectmen among them to spread specific information to Russia.

However, the Kremlin has not been able to bring all Russian bloggers under its control. Some of them fear that he will try to self-censor them, and at the same time the Kremlin will pursue an aggressive policy of direct censorship.

All this is happening against the background of an investigation by the Russian Investigative Committee into a "mass brawl" between Russian ultranationalists and residents of Krasnodar. In addition, there is heightened xenophobic sentiment against migrants and ethnic minorities in Russia.

Ukrainian officials continued to announce a series of new appointments among senior cabinet members in Kyiv.

Russian units carried out counterattacks in the Kursk region against the backdrop of ongoing Ukrainian offensive operations in the area.

Russian units recently advanced near Toretsk and slightly advanced near Chasov Yar. A Russian blogger who previously served as an instructor for the "Sturm-Z" unit announced on September 8 that the Russian army needs to improve the training of commanders in units that launch drones.