How big is the risk of a direct military confrontation between Iran and Israel and what could serve as a deterrent for both countries after on October 1 2024 Iran launched a massive missile attack on Israel with over 180 ballistic missiles?
Let us recall that after the Iranian missile attack, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Iran "made a big mistake and will pay for it". In turn, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that if Israel retaliated against Iran, Tehran's response would be even more powerful.
Is Israel interested in de-escalation in the area?
Israel can count on the US, its most important ally, if it decides to retaliate against an Iranian missile attack. In such a case, the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) "threaten to strike refineries and oil fields (of US allies. - note ed.) throughout the region - including in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE and Bahrain, if Israel strikes Iran's oil facilities first,'' says Simon Wolfgang Fuchs of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and a Middle East expert.
Oil exports are known to be among the main sources of revenue for Iran. And despite US-imposed sanctions against the country's oil industry, Tehran somehow manages to sell oil abroad – and especially to China. In 2023, Iran sold oil for more than 35 billion dollars, reported the special Ministry of Oil in Iran. The increase in exports is due to rising crude oil production, increased demand from China and the expansion of the so-called "shadow fleet", according to data from Vortex Analytics, an analysis firm specializing in the energy sector.
Iran uses its "shadow navy" for smuggling oil to circumvent sanctions. According to the US non-profit organization United Against a Nuclear Iran; (United Against Nuclear Iran) "the shadow fleet" of Iran includes at least 383 vessels.
The London-based TV channel Iran International adds another touch on the subject: Tehran is selling its oil at a 20% discount to the world market price, as buyers are taking serious risks in view of US sanctions. "Chinese refineries are the main buyers of illegal Iranian oil, which is then mixed by middlemen with goods from other countries and labeled in China as imports from Singapore or other countries of origin," the British publication explains the scheme.
40 thousand army in Syria waiting for a signal from Iran
If Israel decides to strike Iran's oil or even nuclear facilities, "the situation in the entire Middle East could become completely unpredictable," warns Professor Simon Wolfgang Fuchs. At the same time, Israel now sees a chance to significantly weaken Iran and thus fundamentally change the situation in the Middle East. Therefore, the professor believes that Israel has no interest in de-escalating the conflict.
Iran is supported by the groups Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as the Houthis in Yemen. But also from an army of mercenaries that is currently deployed in Syria -- up to 40,000 fighters from Syria, Yemen and Afghanistan. If needed, they can be quickly deployed to the lightly guarded Syrian border to aid Hezbollah in its battle against Israel.
Is there a danger of another war?
"Until now, Iran has avoided open military action against Israel, fearing that a retaliatory strike by the Israeli army on its territory would damage its nuclear program and delay the country's development for years," said Burcu Ozcelik, a Middle East expert. east to London's Royal Armed Forces Institute.
However, there are no guarantees that another war in the region will be prevented. "If the actions of the Israeli military in southern Lebanon lead to prolonged fighting with Hezbollah, this may cause Iran-related formations to intervene in the events in Lebanon," Burcu Ozcelik told DV.