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ISW: North Korean troops in Russia - little experience but much needed for now

Bloomberg reported on November 17 that Pyongyang could deploy up to 100,000 North Korean troops to Russia in future waves if bilateral relations between the two countries continue to deteriorate. deepen

Nov 18, 2024 07:38 186

ISW: North Korean troops in Russia - little experience but much needed for now  - 1

The New York Times (NYT) and Washington Post reported that US President Joe Biden authorized Ukrainian forces to use US-supplied ATACMS in limited strikes against Russian and North Korean military targets in the Kursk region. The administration may extend this permission elsewhere in Russia in the future.

The actions are intended to stop North Korea from deploying more forces in Russia, but will not change the course of the war. French publication Le Figaro reported on November 17 that France and Great Britain have also authorized Ukrainian forces to strike Russia.

This is what the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes in another analysis of the hostilities in Ukraine.

Russian forces damaged Ukraine's energy infrastructure during the largest missile and drone strike since August 2024 on the night of November 16-17.

The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces fired 120 missiles and 42 drones. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukrainian F-16 pilots shot down about 10 aerial targets during the strike.

Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko said the strikes caused power outages in many areas of Ukraine.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi said that Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities have forced authorities to reduce energy production levels from several nuclear power plants (NPPs).

Electrical substations connected to the Khmelnytskyi, Rivne and South Ukraine NPPs were affected, although the strikes did not damage the NPPs themselves. Six of the nine reactors are currently operating at reduced capacity. Russian forces have struck a railway depot in Dnipropetrovsk region and affected sections of several railway lines in southern, western and northeastern Ukraine.

They damaged the civilian infrastructure in Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Rivne and Odesa regions.

Russian forces continue to upgrade their long-range strike packages and have likely included relatively ineffective Kalibr cruise missiles. with a sea launch in the November 16-17 strike package as a distraction and drain on Ukrainian air defenses. Russian forces in particular included cruise missiles "Calibre" in the package of strikes against Ukraine on the night of November 16-17.

Ukrainian military officials have repeatedly noted that they are capable of shooting down Kalibr cruise missiles, and Russian forces have rarely engaged them in recent months.

Ukrainian Navy spokesman Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk said in August 2024 that Russian forces only fire sea-based "Caliber" during combined strikes to overcome the Ukrainian air defense umbrella.

ISW recently wrote that Russia is increasing its use of drones that resemble Iran-provided Shahed drones during long-range combined strikes to increase the effectiveness of long-range strikes. long-range strikes against Ukraine before and during the winter.

Russian forces likely used decoy drones to further overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses in the series of strikes on November 16-17, contributing to a below-average Ukrainian force drone strike rate.

Bloomberg reported on November 17 that North Korea could deploy up to 100,000 North Korean troops to Russia in future waves if bilateral relations between the two countries continue to deepen.

Kremlin-awarded founder and director of the famous Rybar Telegram channel Mikhail Zvinchuk argued that North Korean forces have less combat experience but would ease pressure on Russian forces. The development of North Korea's ability to use drones, in addition to the already announced decision to begin serial production of drones in North Korea, could pose a significant challenge to South Korea and Japan.

The UK Ministry of Defense (MOD) previously reported that Russian forces suffered a record high average daily loss of 1,271 soldiers per day, or a total of around 38,130 casualties, in September 2024, and the US Department of Defense estimated that Russian forces suffered approximately 80,110 casualties in September and October 2024.

The deployment of approximately 100,000 North Korean personnel would replace Russian losses in just less than three months. This will not help Russia cope with the shortage of millions of workers due to demographic crises and war.

Russian forces are likely to focus on capturing frontline Ukrainian cities in the winter of 2024-2025 through urban warfare amid efforts to offset the advantages of Ukrainian drones and the possible limitations of Russian armored vehicles.

ISW previously wrote that capturing Kupyansk or Chasov Yar would have a significant operational impact on frontline geometry and threaten key Ukrainian defensive positions in their respective directions, and the recent Russian advance in the cities would put Ukrainian defenses in both directions of higher but not immediate risk.

Zvinchuk claimed that Russian forces will also seek to increase their combat capabilities in the winter of 2024-2025, especially the capabilities of Russian drones because of the importance of the "drone war" in winter.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on November 17 that his recent phone conversation with Putin showed that "little has changed" in Putin's views on the war in Ukraine and that it is "not good news".

Representatives of the Kremlin have long called for Russia to occupy all of southern Ukraine, including the city of Odessa.

Russian access to Transnistria and the Danube River would pose a military threat to Ukraine and NATO. The Ukrainian strikes pushed Russia's Black Sea Fleet (Black Sea Fleet) out of the northwestern Black Sea, but Russian access to the Danube will allow Russia to operate in the area again.

Russian control of the Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions would deprive Ukraine of access to the Sea of Azov, and Russian access and eventual control of the northwestern Black Sea would essentially leave Ukraine landlocked. Russian access to the Danube River and the route to Transnistria could also enable Russia to establish lines of communication with Transnistria - and possibly even with Gagauzia in southern Moldova, since Moldova has a port along the Danube River at its southernmost point at Giurgiulesti - to build up forces and funds in Moldova for future military operations against Moldova, South-Eastern Ukraine or Romania.

NATO is currently building its largest base near Constanta in southeastern Romania, less than 100 kilometers from the mouth of the Danube River.

Abkhaz oppositionists continued their protests on November 17 with calls for the resignation of the de facto president of Abkhazia, Aslan Bzhaniya. The opposition initially stormed the building of the de facto Abkhazian parliament on November 15 demanding the rejection of the proposed investment agreement with Russia. It will grant Russian legal entities property rights and property privileges in Abkhazia.

But he eventually broadened the scope of his demands to call for Bzhania's resignation.

Bzhania said on November 16 that he would resign and appoint a vice president as interim head of state before early elections if the opposition left the parliament building, but protesters rejected his demands and called for his unconditional resignation.

He called the protest an attempted coup, said it was impossible to find a compromise with the opposition and refused to step down. This prompted the opposition to continue the protests and propose the formation of an interim government.