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France's problems could shake the entire EU

France's difficulties could prove so serious that the Greek debt crisis could start to seem like innocent child's play

Dec 5, 2024 15:49 121

France experienced a historic moment. For the first time in more than 60 years, a French prime minister was removed from power by a vote of no confidence in the National Assembly. Michel Barnier failed in the end precisely on the most crucial issue of his program: the adoption of a budget with significant savings for the coming year. The goal was to reduce the increasingly dangerous mountain of debt of the state.

Savings are needed

Therefore, drastic austerity measures had to be taken, but the parties in France failed to reach an agreement on these measures. Regardless of the fact that Prime Minister Barnier made a number of concessions to the far-right National Assembly leader Marine Le Pen, the vote of no confidence was successful.

Dangerously high debt

France is dangerously in debt. The country has a gigantic budget deficit and must urgently reduce it in order to comply with EU requirements. Brussels has already started criminal proceedings against France because the budget deficit for this year amounts to 6% of GDP. This is double what EU rules allow.

At the same time, the current situation in France is extremely unstable. The political center is extremely stratified, while the far-right and far-left forces have such strong positions that the country is becoming ungovernable.

When the political center is divided, extreme forces win

And when the parties of the political center demonstrate an inability to cooperate because they rely on extracting short-term political benefits from the situation, a similar critical situation as the current one in France is reached.

President Macron will now have to make a new attempt to unite the fractious political forces at the center. In the past, he had not been able to cope with this task very successfully. If it fails even now, the consequences may be felt throughout Europe.

A crisis that could shake the whole EU

Simultaneous crises in France and Germany are political poison for stability throughout the EU, observers believe. Without a government in France, the process of restructuring the budget cannot begin, which means that the high interest rates on the debt will increase and the financial markets will gradually cut off the country's access to new loans.

Amid the crisis that may be looming over France, Greece's one-time problems may begin to look like innocent child's play. And the Greek crisis at the time shook the entire EU. This can only please the dictators and autocrats around Europe.