Russian forces continue to achieve tactical successes south of Pokrovsk while hitting Ukraine's weak points and attempting to attack directly from the south. Geolocation footage released on December 10 shows that they have advanced into the western part of Novi Trud.
This is what the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes in another analysis of the hostilities in Ukraine.
This advance puts Russian forces about six kilometers south of Pokrovsk. Ukrainian Khortytsa Force Group spokesman Colonel Nazar Voloshin noted on December 11 that Russian forces attacked Ukrainian fortifications west of Novi Trud, south of Novotroitske (southwest of Shevchenko) and on the southwestern outskirts of Shevchenko itself. Voloshin said Ukrainian forces lost two positions during these attacks and are working to retake them.
A Ukrainian battalion commander operating near Pokrovsk characterized the situation in that direction as "critical," in large part because each battalion-sized Russian formation receives about 200 new recruits a month.
The Ukrainian commander also stressed that Russian forces attack Ukrainian positions up to 30 times a day and have the upper hand. ISW recently assessed that the Russian command has resumed offensive operations to capture Pokrovsk through a turning maneuver from the south, but that this maneuver comes at a huge cost in Russian manpower and equipment.
Another Ukrainian brigade officer reported that Russian forces had lost nearly 3,000 men in the direction of Pokrovsk in two weeks.
US intelligence has warned that Russia may launch a second ballistic missile "Oreshnik" against Ukraine in the near future to dissuade the West from providing additional military aid to Ukraine. Bloomberg, citing an unspecified US official, reported on December 11 that Russia may carry out another strike with the Oreshnik ballistic missile. against Ukraine in the "coming days".
Russia first used the Oreshnik missile in a strike against the city of Dnipro on November 21, 2024. ISW believes that the Russian strikes and the rhetoric surrounding Russia's use of the missile are part of a larger Russian reflexive operation.
The Chief of the Russian General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, previously denied this claim, insisting that Russia had planned the Oreshnik missile launch. well before the US decision to allow Ukraine to strike military targets in Russia with US-supplied ATACMS.
Ukrainian forces hit an oil depot in Bryansk Oblast and an aircraft repair plant in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast on the night of December 10-11. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 11 that units of Ukrainian unmanned systems and the Main Directorate of Military Intelligence (GUR) struck a loading point for the Druzhba oil pipeline in the Bryansk region, causing a massive fire.
The pipeline receives, stores and distributes fuel and supplies to Russian forces. The impact caused a huge fire. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claims that Russian forces shot down 14 Ukrainian drones over Bryansk Oblast, and Governor Alexander Bogomaz claims that a Ukrainian drone strike on an unspecified industrial facility in Bryansk Oblast caused a fire.
The Russian Defense Ministry said Ukrainian forces also fired six ATACMS missiles at the Taganrog military airfield in Rostov Oblast, that Russian Pantsir air defenses shot down two missiles, and that Russian electronic warfare had "deflected" four rockets.
The Russian Defense Ministry said falling missile fragments damaged two buildings near the airport, three military vehicles and cars in a nearby parking lot.
Russian opposition publication Astra reported on December 11 that it had located footage of the strike in the area near the 325th aircraft repair plant in Taganrog.
Russian officials are likely to expand on similar accounts of "Oreshnik" if Russian forces use it again.