In an interview with ARD, Ambassador von Fritsch said that even after the phone call with Donald Trump, there is no sign of any readiness to change the Russian side's positions. Quite the opposite: "We are left with the impression that once again Vladimir Putin has managed to create in Donald Trump the feeling that there is already light at the end of the tunnel, but in reality Putin himself is the one who is making the tunnel longer," says the German diplomat, who was ambassador to Russia from 2014 to 2019.
Without pressure from the US, Putin can continue to fight
He also told ARD that Putin has already managed to deflect the most unacceptable demand for Russia, namely a ceasefire that would allow Ukraine to negotiate freely and safely. So Putin can now continue his war against Ukraine without being bothered by any noticeable pressure from the US. This will ultimately allow Putin to write down in the memorandum with Ukraine precisely the goals he is pursuing in the war. And then it is possible that some kind of ceasefire will also come about. Ambassador von Fritsch fears that this is exactly how events could develop.
When asked how Putin views Trump, the German diplomat said that Putin certainly feels his superiority over Trump. But the Russian president also has the same fundamental problem with Trump that the Europeans have: Trump is also unpredictable and inconsistent. But Putin understands well that Donald Trump wants to end this conflict in Europe at all costs, which is annoying for the United States and also creates great costs for the Americans.
In other words, Putin knows that Trump is ready to sacrifice a lot, including the interests of Ukraine and European security, to end the war. Putin also knows that Trump has, above all, commercial interests. “It is very indicative that, including in his last telephone conversation with Putin, Trump again spoke about American and Russian economic interests, for which he saw a golden future. And Putin took advantage of this. He sees the dollar signs in Trump's eyes," says the German diplomat.
"Putin can be stopped"
When asked by ARD whether Putin has the resources to continue this war for many more years, former German ambassador to Moscow Rüdiger von Fritsch said: "That largely depends on us. Are we ready and determined not only to support Ukraine, but also to use sanctions to push Putin to the limit of his financial and economic capabilities? Because that will happen at some point. Even Putin cannot continue this war indefinitely. He is still able to fight, but his resources are not infinite."
In this regard, the German diplomat pleaded for a new tightening of Western sanctions against Russia, which are costing the country very dearly - it currently spends 40% of its national budget on military purposes. Von Fritsch also points out something else - that at the same time, the Kremlin is forced to constantly buy the approval of the people in the country, because Putin is very afraid of popular discontent - if it were not so, the regime would not be so repressive.
"Sanctions are not without effect"
Regarding the 17th package of sanctions against Moscow being prepared - Von Fritsch opposes the claim that the previous Western restrictions have not achieved their goals. He says: "Western sanctions are increasingly worsening Putin's situation. As I have already pointed out, this war costs 40% of the Russian budget. In good times for Russia, 50% of the country's revenues were generated from oil and gas. Now this level has dropped to 27%. The Russian state budget relies on a price of 70 US dollars per barrel of oil - which would allow the country to maintain this level of 27%. But right now, the price of oil is only $48 per barrel, inflation is 10.2%, and the country's economy is completely overheated because of the war. The civilian sector is currently in recession, food inflation is over 12%. The main interest rate is 21%. In these conditions, no one is investing anymore.“
Russia still has liquid reserves, but they have melted by two-thirds since the start of the war - it is clear that they are not infinite, the former German ambassador goes on to say. Therefore, according to him, the West must show Putin the limits of his capabilities - by being united and decisive in terms of sanctions. However, Putin knows that if the war continues indefinitely, this could threaten my power at home. Therefore, there will come a point when he will be ready for negotiations and compromises, the German diplomat claims.
Author: Jesse Wellmer ARD