The statement of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on the lifting of restrictions on Ukraine's strikes on Russian territory may seem to Kiev "both unpleasant and desirable".
This is due to the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have probably already exhausted a significant part of the long-range missile stockpiles received in 2023-2024, and the question of further deliveries still remains open, Forbes writes.
According to the publication, among the most famous long-range weapons are "air-to-air" missiles SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow from France and the United Kingdom (different national designations for the same missile), as well as ATACMS ballistic missiles supplied by the United States for launch from the ground using HIMARS and M270 launchers.
In the fall of 2024, these missiles were already used against targets in Russia, despite nuclear threats from the Kremlin, the publication notes.
Western partners previously allowed Ukraine to strike only at targets that posed an immediate threat. Now these restrictions have been lifted, and Ukraine has received a ''green light' in the use of Western weapons, Forbes writes.
However, as military analysts note, the question arises about the number of these missiles available in the country. It is believed that by the fall of 2023, Ukraine had received less than 50 ATACMS missiles, some of which had already been used in previous strikes. As for the SCALP/Storm Shadow cruise missiles, several hundred of them have probably been transferred, including 40 units from France in January this year.
The production of SCALP missiles remains limited. Earlier, France, the UK and Italy jointly purchased 1,600 such munitions, but some of them have already been used or need to be repaired. Currently, the factories are only able to produce 50-100 missiles per year. However, France has already invested 2 billion euros in increasing production.
Earlier, Merz said that Berlin would no longer publicly announce the transfer of weapons to Ukraine. This could mean that new deliveries of long-range weapons are already being prepared or will begin soon, but they will not be officially announced.
The focus remains on the Taurus cruise missile, which is capable of hitting targets at long distances. Ukraine has long wanted these missiles, but former Chancellor Olaf Scholz refused to hand them over.
Ukraine has long wanted these missiles, but former Chancellor Olaf Scholz refused to hand them over. Although Merz previously supported this decision, he did not give a clear answer after his appointment, Forbes writes.
“This is a sign that Germany can change its supply policy without undue political pressure“, defense sources told the publication.
According to Forbes, Germany has about 600 Taurus missiles in stock, although some of them need technical improvements. If they are transferred to Ukraine and used together with SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles, the Ukrainian armed forces will be able to strike at a distance of up to 650 km. This will allow it to hit targets even close to Moscow. However, the actual range will depend on the launch conditions, including the flight altitude to avoid Russian air defenses.
The publication also writes that the lifting of restrictions on strikes on Russian territory gives Ukraine new opportunities - in particular, to attack bomber bases, launchers and drone warehouses. This strategy corresponds to the principle: “it is better to hit the shooter than the arrow“.
However, the magazine notes that the final result will depend on how many missiles Ukraine already has and how many more it will receive. If there is little ammunition, permission to strike on Russian territory will not have a significant effect.
Against this background, the possibility of purchasing American JASSM cruise missiles for Ukraine, which are suitable for F-16 fighters, is also being discussed. Their supply could significantly strengthen the strike capabilities of Ukrainian troops after the arrival of the aircraft.
On May 26, Merz said on German public television during the 27th international forum WDR Europaforum that Germany, the United Kingdom, France and the United States no longer have restrictions on the scope of strikes against Ukraine.
Later, Merz responded to criticism from German politicians who attacked him for his statement on the removal of restrictions on strikes against Ukraine with Western weapons, noting that this decision was made several months ago.