Bulgaria, Hungary and Spain are the three countries that are at risk of non-compliance with the EU fiscal framework in 2026. This is stated in the autumn package of the European Semester, which sets the priorities of economic and employment policy in order to increase competitiveness in the community.
Within the semester, the EC adopted opinions on the draft budgetary plans for 2026 of 17 eurozone countries.
Twelve countries — Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Luxembourg, Portugal and Slovakia are assessed as being in compliance with EU fiscal rules and are invited to continue with their planned fiscal policies.
Three countries - Croatia, Lithuania and Slovenia - are assessed as being at risk of non-compliance and are invited to take measures to bring their fiscal policies in line with the recommendations. Malta and the Netherlands are assessed as being at risk of significant non-compliance.
For the remaining EU countries, seven are assessed as being in compliance - Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Sweden, Poland and Romania, and three countries - Bulgaria, Hungary and Spain - are at risk of non-compliance.
Bulgaria and eight other countries will be subject to a more in-depth review in spring 2026, with risks to social convergence vis-à-vis the other Member States. These include challenges such as low productivity, labor and skills shortages, as well as higher levels of poverty or other social hardships.