After the return of the second exploratory term, Bulgaria is entering a new stage of political uncertainty, and the key question remains when President Rumen Radev will be awarded a third term and whether the country will move towards early elections. According to political scientist Prof. Ognyan Minchev, the actions of the head of state will depend not only on the constitutional procedure, but also on his own political considerations.
In an interview with “Denyat na Zivu“ Prof. Minchev commented that the president has some freedom in time and can choose whether the elections should be held at the end of March or after Easter - in the second half of April. “The elections depend on whether Radev wants to speed up the process of appointing a caretaker government and organizing the elections, or will he try to delay it as much as possible“, he pointed out.
The debate - Radev in the elections
According to the political scientist, the topic of President Rumen Radev's possible participation in the upcoming elections remains entirely in the realm of speculation. For such a scenario to happen, two conditions must be met - a strong protest wave and stable political allies in the next parliament. “I currently do not see the fulfillment of any of these conditions”, said Minchev.
He emphasized that the protesters who take to the streets do not have a clear party affiliation and their behavior in the elections is difficult to predict. “I do not see any serious preparations on the part of Radev or his team for active participation in the political arena“, added the political scientist.
According to him, however, the president's political line for years has been aimed at deepening the crisis. “Regardless of whether we are talking about a party project or an idea for a presidential republic, Radev's political strategy is related to a deepening institutional crisis, in which he remains the only stable and legitimate figure“, commented Minchev.
Common interests between the president and PP–DB
Regarding the relations between the president and “We continue the change– Democratic Bulgaria“, Prof. Minchev noted that there are short-term and medium-term common interests between them. Among them are the election of an acting prime minister and the manner of conducting the upcoming vote.
“There are indications that both Radev and PP-DB are insisting on elections conducted entirely by machines and with maximum use of software reporting“, he pointed out.
The political scientist compared the president's behavior to that of Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha before the 2001 elections - a complete lack of prior information and a surprising decision at the last minute. “Radev does not say it directly, but he behaves in exactly the same way“, said Minchev.
The disputes over the election rules
Prof. Minchev was categorical that changing the Electoral Code immediately before the vote is an “illegitimate and dangerous approach“.
“Procedures and technologies matter, but the most important are political responsibility and agreement between the main political forces. The political struggle over the manner of conducting the elections is absurd and counterproductive“, he emphasized.
Can the parliament work
According to Prof. Minchev, despite the deep opposition, the parliament is obliged to continue working until the elections due to the current constitutional changes. However, he expressed serious skepticism that the current National Assembly is capable of making meaningful decisions on key national issues.