Tensions in the Middle East have escalated in recent hours after the Israeli Air Force launched a second wave of strikes on targets in Tehran, including strategic sites and the state television building. Iran responded with a new salvo of ballistic missiles against Israel. Against this background, US President Donald Trump said that the operation against the Iranian regime is “progressing rapidly“ and could be over within four weeks. On the air of “Your Day“, journalist Mohammed Khalaf and international analyst Ruslan Trad outlined a more pessimistic scenario.
According to Khalaf, the duration of the war will depend on whether the Israelis will destroy the centers of the various repressive apparatuses - the Revolutionary Guard and other structures. According to him, the attacks can be expected to intensify in the next 24 hours. He singled out Ali Larijani as a key figure, who "has many decision-making tools in his hands", but stressed that the main factor remains the Revolutionary Guard. "There will be an escalation and it will not decrease - they want to expand military actions and distract attention from the US", he believes, adding that negotiations are not expected soon.
Ruslan Trad also predicts that the conflict in the Middle East will be prolonged. "The heaviest attacks are just beginning", he believes. According to him, the four-week horizon outlined by Trump is unlikely. Trad stressed that the name of a new head of state will not be announced soon, "since the regime is acting with a view to its security and survival. He was categorical that in addition to military, the conflict also has clear political messages: “There are political goals that Trump is pursuing - and that is regime change.“
The role of the Revolutionary Guard is of particular importance. “It will choose a weak supreme leader to hold real power“, and Khamenei's death can be interpreted as a signal to search for a new formula, including the possibility of negotiations under certain conditions“, Khalaf is categorical. However, Trad warned that even with a regime change, the Guard structures “will most likely survive“, which poses a risk of internal power struggles and partisan actions.
Regarding the international consequences, Trad noted that China is one of the losing countries, as it relies on Iran for energy supplies and strategic corridors. “Trump's main goal is to isolate Iran and China“, Khalaf added. According to Trad, Beijing will rather get involved indirectly, “supporting the regime“, without openly entering the war. As for Europe, the analyst assured that “European shores are safe“ and Bulgaria is not directly threatened, although the southern countries remain on high alert.