Iran has already carried out an attack against Bulgaria through the proxy organization Hezbollah during the terrorist act at Sarafovo airport. This was stated by the former Ambassador of Bulgaria to Russia and political analyst Iliyan Vassilev in his post on social networks, commenting on the debates surrounding the potential threat to our country against the backdrop of the escalation in the Middle East. He criticizes the lack of an adequate institutional response and the reluctance to convene the National Security Advisory Council (NSAC).
The analyst recalls the tragic events of the summer of 2012 as a clear sign of Tehran's methods of action.
„Iran has already attacked Bulgaria - through Hezbollah and the organized terrorist act in Sarafovo. "One Bulgarian citizen and five Israeli tourists were killed, and another 32 Israeli tourists were injured," Vassilev points out in his analysis.
He points out that although the Bulgarian investigation reached the military wing of Hezbollah, which provided the logistics and financing of the attack, the trace did not officially reach Iran. However, Vassilev emphasizes that such large-scale operations by the Lebanese organization are impossible without Tehran's approval.
In the context of current concerns about a direct missile strike by Iran, the former diplomat considers this scenario less likely than asymmetric actions.
“Why do it if there are other ways? Sarafovo is a sufficiently indicative example. Iran has the capacity to use structures and proxy organizations related to it, without taking direct responsibility for each operation“, the expert argues.
According to him, the focus of Bulgarian society and services should not be solely on the range of Iranian missiles, but on other possible instruments of influence and attack. The key question today is whether Bulgarian services are prepared to prevent such hidden threats.
Vassilev sharply criticizes the state leadership for the way in which the risk is communicated to the public. According to him, fear is already reflected in domestic politics.
“Instead of a professional assessment of the risk, we see reassuring declarations, political maneuvers and an unwillingness to speak clearly. The fear is so great that Yotova does not dare to convene the National Security Council“, writes the analyst.
He is categorical that the National Security Council is the format in which the head of state, the prime minister, the security services and the political parties should discuss the situation calmly and professionally, avoiding creating a television panic.
“We do not need to scare people. But we need not lie to them and not underestimate the enemy. Sarafovo has already shown us that a country can be attacked without missiles. And therefore the most reasonable reaction is neither panic nor self-deception. But preparation. And actions. Some visible, some invisible“, concludes Iliyan Vassilev.