The announcement of the termination of US arms supplies to Ukraine has alarmed both official Kiev and international partners. How critical is this decision for covering Russian aggression and for Ukrainian air defense? According to Oleg Katkov, a weapons expert and editor-in-chief of the Ukrainian portal "Defense Express", the US decision is critical - given that 30 percent of the weapons used by Ukraine are American. Accordingly, it needs American spare parts, service and ammunition. Katkov points out that F-16 fighters, for example, are helpless without the American AIM-120 AMRAAM and AIM-9 SIDEWINDER missiles - without them they will not be able to hit air targets, including missiles and drones. And without American bombs like JDAM-ER or SDB, they will not be able to hit ground targets. Without American missiles, the "Patriot" systems will also be useless.
DV: Do you think that other wars and conflicts around the world have directly influenced the war in Ukraine?
O. Katkov: No, Donald Trump did - his programs "Make America Great Again" and "America First", the growth of isolationism and the total reorientation to domestic problems and the problems of the Pacific region. This was included in Trump's election program and began to be implemented, to our regret. There are no surprises.
DV: What does this mean for Ukraine in view of the new circumstances? After all, 70 percent of the weapons used are not American, and Ukraine could probably make up for the shortfall?
O. Katkov: We cannot produce missiles for the "Patriot" and "Hymers". We cannot produce F-16s and missiles for them. We cannot produce "Javelin", "Stinger" or missiles for them - as far as American weapons are concerned. And for the other 70 percent, there has never been a surplus of weapons in Ukraine. We have always emphasized that we do not have enough. And now they are decreasing by another 30 percent.
Specifically - if, for example, from 2022 to 2024 the United States provided three million pieces of ammunition, now we are left without them, and that is only if we talk about ammunition. In terms of air defense, if there are no missiles for the F-16 and NASAMS, we will receive many more cruise missiles.
DV: As for the "Patriot" missiles, it seems that the issue has not been resolved, and Donald Trump promises not to limit these supplies. Is this realistic?
O. Katkov: The Pentagon does not and will not provide information on the quantities of ammunition delivered to Ukraine, or on the terms associated with them. Everything else is insinuations that may or may not be true. Let's say the US produces a nominal 50 "Patriot" missiles per month and sends one of them to Ukraine - is this support? The deliveries may formally continue, but this will not make it easier for Ukraine.
DV: In your opinion, how can the Russian command take advantage of this situation?
O. Katkov: The Russians will naturally take advantage and will continue to do what they are doing. This is a gift for Putin.
DV: Still, couldn't Ukraine compensate for the shortage of American weapons? Can't missiles for other alternative systems be quickly provided - for example, Italian ones?
O. Katkov: We have no alternative. Because even though the "Patriot" and the F-16 have analogues, Ukraine has received large quantities of the former and very few of the latter. There is also an analogue of NASAMS - this is IRIS-T, but this system is weaker, so we have received more NASAMS.
DV: What strategic consequences will this have for everyone, in particular in Europe?
O. Katkov: The US is officially withdrawing from the European defense architecture, explaining this with the principle of "America First". The US is globally reorienting itself towards the Pacific region, therefore the problems of Europe are the problems of Europe. And Ukraine is also Europe. That is - do as you wish, this is the official position of Washington.
DV: Will this prompt Europe to accelerate the creation of European defense programs and to provide greater assistance to Ukraine?
O. Katkov: Of course. Germany, for example, is planning a significant increase in defense spending - 153 billion euros in four years, while it is currently 86.5 billion.
This is precisely the reaction of Europeans to the principle of "America First" and the US's exit from the European security architecture. But we must understand that the creation of new enterprises, the start of the production of new weapons are programs that need at least one or two years. Will Ukraine wait for them? At the moment I have no reason for optimism, but I hope that humanity will win.
Author: Liliya Rzhoitskaya