The Kremlin continued its nuclear threats against the US ahead of the ordered deployment of US nuclear submarines on August 1, demonstrating that Medvedev's threats are part of a wider Kremlin campaign to wave the nuclear saber.
This was stated in its daily analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
US President Donald Trump has ordered the deployment of two US nuclear submarines closer to Russia, likely in response to nuclear threats against the US made on July 31 by Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko spoke to journalists on August 1 in an event that was likely staged, to publicly promote the Kremlin's messages and positions on the war in Ukraine.
Lukashenko criticized Trump's recent efforts to bring Russia to the negotiating table and find a way to end the war. Lukashenko said Trump should act "carefully" and that it is not possible for Trump to "dictate the rules" during the ongoing military conflict, "especially with a nuclear power" like Russia.
Kremlin officials and their associates often use nuclear threats as part of their reflexive control campaign, which aims to force the West to make decisions that are in Russia's favor.
The Kremlin has also repeatedly used staged interactions with Lukashenko to make indirect nuclear threats.
Medvedev's nuclear threats of July 31 are also part of these reflexive control efforts, as Putin often uses Medvedev to amplify provocative rhetoric designed to cause panic and fear among Western politicians and dissuade them from providing aid to Ukraine.
ISW continues to believe that Medvedev's provocative and threatening statements are very likely part of a coordinated Kremlin information strategy imposed from above.
Putin could censor Medvedev's statements if he chooses to did so, especially given that the Kremlin coordinates official statements and controls the Russian information space, the Internet, and the media.
Russian military bloggers noted that Trump did not specify exactly where the American submarines were located, suggesting that Trump's statement may have been a bluff.
Another military blogger called on Russian nuclear-armed ships and submarines to "pay a friendly visit to Cuba again".
Russian warships, including a ship allegedly capable of carrying nuclear weapons, docked in Cuba in June 2024, likely to evoke the historical memory of the Cuban Missile Crisis as part of Russia's reflexive campaign of control aimed at instilling fear in the West and pushing it to make decisions that are in Russia's favor.
On August 1, Putin repeated the same demands that first exposed in June 2024, thus once again demonstrating Russia's uncompromising position and lack of interest in negotiations to end the war against Ukraine.
In June 2024 Putin demanded that Ukrainian forces begin a full withdrawal from Ukrainian-controlled territories in the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson regions (which the Kremlin illegally declared annexed in September 2022) and that Ukraine formally abandon its goal of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) before Russia agrees to a ceasefire and peace talks.
Putin and Lukashenko have demonstrated military strength and economic stability as part of Putin's ongoing efforts to convince Trump that sanctions and military support for Ukraine will not change the outcome of the war in Ukraine and that Trump should abandon his efforts to resolve the conflict.
Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be turning Russia into a Soviet-style police state, likely in preparation for expected anti-war sentiment among the Russian population as the Kremlin prolongs the war in Ukraine and prepares for a future war with NATO.
Russia continues to use innovations in long-range drones to facilitate its ongoing campaign of long-range strikes and inflict greater casualties on Ukraine's civilian population.
A meeting between Zelensky and Putin is unlikely in the near future
Amid Trump's ultimatum, Kiev is trying to force Moscow to show its true colors
Ukrainian forces have recently advanced in the northern part of Sumy Oblast and near Borova and Liman. Russian forces have recently advanced near Kupyansk, Siversk, Toretsk and Pokrovsk.