The world's automotive leader Toyota is forced to put the brakes on its factories outside Japan for the second time in a matter of weeks. While a month ago the company predicted a reduction in volumes by about 83 thousand vehicles by November 2026, today the scale of the correction seems far more drastic. According to the brand's latest estimates, the cumulative production deficit abroad will reach an impressive 100,000 vehicles by February 2027, and the biggest victim of this negative trend is the latest generation of the best-selling Toyota RAV4.
The main cuts will affect the classic gasoline modifications of the crossover, assembled outside Japan. Although the headquarters is sparing the exact figures for the market shortages of the model, the plan to get out of the crisis includes an urgent increase in the pace at the Japanese factories. There, the production of Toyota RAV4 and Land Cruiser 250 will be increased by only 4,200 units in the second half of the current fiscal year - a drop in the ocean against the backdrop of large-scale layoffs, but still a breath of air for suppliers who are already reconfiguring their assembly lines.
The reasons for this sudden turn lie in the complex geopolitical puzzle and economic uncertainty. Escalating tensions around Iran and the resulting serious risks to shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz have exploded fuel prices in a number of regions. This has led to a serious cooling of consumer interest and weaker-than-expected demand in key markets in the Middle East, North Africa and East Asia. Consumers are simply becoming more cautious when it comes to buying conventional cars with higher costs.
Ironically, however, while factories in Asia and Africa are slowing down, a completely different and, to put it mildly, hysterical scenario is playing out in the US market. Demand for the new generation Toyota RAV4 overseas is literally explosive. At some US dealerships, waiting lists for customers are reaching hundreds of positions, and sales managers admit that they count the available cars in stock not in days, but in hours. The cruel truth is that due to production delays, the US market will remain "dry" with about 55,000 undelivered copies of the beloved crossover by the end of the year. This shortage is further complicated by the new model's transition to a fully electrified (hybrid) range in the US, which necessitated a large-scale and slow retooling of the main plants in Canada and Kentucky.
In parallel with the crisis surrounding the RAV4, Toyota is also forced to reconsider its positions in the world's largest car market - China. Local production adjustments will seriously hit the portfolio of eco-friendly models, including the bZ3X electric crossovers, the bZ7 sedan, as well as the specific Chinese specification of the classic Camry. However, the problem here is not in logistics or fuel, but in the ruthless and aggressive price war waged by local Chinese manufacturers.
Analysts in the sector agree that the powerful offensive of local giants such as BYD, Nio and Xiaomi is literally pushing traditional foreign brands out of the electric car market. Young Chinese buyers are largely ignoring Japanese alternatives, forcing Toyota management to soberly lower its sales expectations in China. Ultimately, the world's largest automaker faces a daunting challenge: how to balance closing factories in the East with trying to satisfy a market hungry for new cars in the West.