The National Bank of Ukraine, due to the conflict in the Middle East and the delay in obtaining external financing from the West, has worsened by 0.5 percentage points. forecast for GDP growth in the country by nearly 2 percentage points. Inflation forecast until the end of 2026.
"Inflation accelerated to 7.9% in March. In the coming months, inflation will remain close to the current level, but will accelerate in the second half of the year (up to 9.4% at the end of the year)", the National Bank report says. According to the regulator's forecast, inflation will be 6.5% at the end of 2027.
In the January report of the NBU, inflation at the end of this year was forecast at 7.5%, and at the end of next year - 6%. As a reason for the increase in inflation, the regulator indicated the rise in energy prices due to the conflict in the Middle East, the difficult situation in the country's energy sector and the effect of the weakening of the hryvnia in previous periods.
The current report also worsens the forecast for GDP growth in 2026. It is now estimated at 1.3%, while the previous report predicted 1.8%. The National Bank considers the delay in receiving foreign aid as one of the reasons for the economic slowdown.
This is not the first time that the regulator has worsened expectations for inflation and GDP. In the January report, inflation expectations were raised from 6.6% to 7.5% for the current year and from 5% to 6% for the next. At the same time, NBU analysts continue to hope for its “return to the trajectory of sustained deceleration and the 5% target“ in 2028. The GDP growth forecast was also revised in January and was reduced by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous report. - from 2% to 1.8%.