From the very beginning, Iliyana Yotova has been a favorite in the presidential race. This was stated in the program "Newsroom" on Radio FOCUS by political scientist Assoc. Prof. Petar Cholakov.
According to him, the question was mainly what the other contenders would be. Sociological polls show her high positive rating and approval, which are practically the highest in the political system – even above those of Prime Minister Rumen Radev. In addition, the formation supporting her "Progressive Bulgaria" won the elections convincingly a few months ago, which gives her serious trump cards.
"And when you have such a favorite, the question is what the others offer and whether they can somehow catch up", explained the political scientist.
The favorite Iliyana Yotova and the traps of power
Assoc. Prof. Cholakov pointed out that the fact that Yotova enters the campaign as an acting head of state and will continue to perform her functions is a double-edged sword.
According to him, despite the advantages of commenting on current topics, she can easily accumulate negativity from the critical situation in the country and abroad:
"The old maxim is valid that the more you talk and appear, especially in such a critical situation - foreign policy, domestic policy - the easier you can accumulate negativity. And this lead can suddenly melt and disappear. So it is risky. Yes, it gives an advantage, as far as topics are commented on, but new questions constantly arise and if there are any negatives that accumulate on the back of “Progressive Bulgaria“, they will immediately be attributed to it. This can fail and stumble its candidacy, so I would say that this is a very, very special situation in which it finds itself, and does not necessarily give it only advantages,“ he noted.
Commenting on the election of Kiril Valchev as vice president, the expert emphasized that the goal is to maximally expand the electoral horizons. According to him, the figure of the BTA Director General brings prestige and broad support from various political forces, including GERB circles.
"Mr. Valchev was supported for his first term at BTA practically by GERB, which now raises many questions in connection with this choice of Yotova. For his second term, however, he received much broader support. This shows that he is a figure with prestige who receives broad support from various political forces with recognized expertise and so on. This is the desired effect,“ he explained.
According to Assoc. Prof. Cholakov, the presence of prominent figures from GERB in the initiative committee is a clear attempt to attract right-wing voters, but the question remains how this will be accepted by the hard core of “Progressive Bulgaria“.
"We saw in the initiative committee people like Emil Radev (MEP from GERB), Vezhdi Rashidov (former Speaker of the National Assembly, famous Bulgarian sculptor), politically connected to GERB, involved in some not-so-pleasant scandals over the years, which we can also interpret as an attempt to expand the electoral niche in the direction of GERB voters. Of course, this gives Boyko Borisov himself and others the opportunity to intrigue. It remains to be seen how this will be accepted by the voters of "Progressive Bulgaria" themselves, because this is the backbone of the support that Yotova will receive. When such prominent figures from GERB or associated with Boyko Borisov's party are in the initiative committee, will this not confuse and sway the voters of "Progressive Bulgaria", who would otherwise vote firmly for Iliyana Yotova? This remains to be seen", added the political scientist.
The teenage model and the risks facing Gyurov and Kandev
Assoc. Prof. Cholakov described the campaign of Andrey Gyurov and Georgi Kandev as unconventional and risky: "Other colleagues used other terms, I heard "shock campaign", "social experiment" and what not. But in my opinion, it is clearly a "va-bang" game, on the "all or nothing" principle, by taking a very big risk, and when taking such big risks there is a serious danger of failure. So, Iliyana Yotova has the best chances".
The political scientist also drew attention to the delay in the official announcement of their candidates, as well as the internal tensions between the parties that support them. The couple's behavior and public appearances also raise questions:
"And their campaign is on a sort of teenage model. The Bulgarian voter as a whole is traditionally oriented. Of course, the youngest voters in the age group between 18 and 29-30 are probably more broken, but this is a very difficult institution. This is the most difficult institution in the country: president, vice president, supreme commander, the National Security Council convenes, etc. There is no place here for such clips in which candidates play video games and wave water pistols. It turns into a tragicomedy and this is a big risk for the campaign itself - that it could lead to a very big failure. And we have not seen anything and we are still waiting to see who the "Vazrazhdane" candidate will be. Lest it turns out that this candidate will take the turn before Gyurov and Kandev and he will go to a runoff - this will be a very big slap in the face for PP and DB“.
"GERB's"defeatist behavior"
GERB's decision not to nominate its own presidential candidate was defined by the political scientist as "defeatist thinking" and "a serious political mistake" by Boyko Borisov.
According to him, it is inexplicable that the second political force in the country with such great experience should refuse to participate:
"When you are the second political force, when you have won so many elections, you have been prime minister three times, you have also had a president - not to field a candidate, I don't know how to define this message to the voters. If it is not disappointing, then this is defeatist behavior. Maybe not for the staunch supporters of GERB, but those who would vote for GERB in order not to vote for Iliyana Yotova and Kiril Valchev - then what do they actually get in return? Besides what Borisov tried to intrigue - hinted that he could support Gyurov and Kandev... Won't this do them some kind of disservice, I don't know, because these political forces that until recently wondered whether to stand behind them - PP and DB, weren't they dismantling the "GERB-DPS" model? So in the end GERB will turn out to be some kind of cornerstone and it can't do without them, because we see them in Yotova's initiative committee, then it will turn out that Borisov supported Gyurov and Kandev and finally it will turn out that GERB won the elections without their participation. Which will not be the first time, of course, if we listen to Boyko Borisov“.
What will Bulgarians vote for on October 25?
When asked about the main messages and stakes on election day, Assoc. Prof. Cholakov noted that the different formations will seek a different reading – from breaking with the "GERB-DPS“ model to warnings that Yotova will be an avatar of Rumen Radev.
At the end of his conversation, the political scientist summarized what the final clash could look like:
"Ultimately, we will see a debate – without wanting to prejudge things in advance, but it seems that with Gyurov and Kandev there is a danger that they will sink into the mimance and in fact the main conversation will be between Yotova and the contender of "Vazrazhdane", which we are waiting to see at any moment. That is, between the hard eurosceptics, who will criticize membership in the eurozone in general... and a much softer euroscepticism of a political force that stands behind Yotova... And this debate seems to be largely predetermined in favor of Yotova, unless during the debates itself she somehow loses her temper or some crisis moments, blunders occur that can be attributed to "Progressive Bulgaria" or to her personally, and simply at the last moment something goes wrong".