The successes that Russia has achieved in the last few months are due to the delay in American aid to Ukraine. This is what he said in the program "Bulgaria, Europe and the world in focus" on Radio "Focus“ the security expert Ivaylo Ivanov.
In his words, the official information from the Ukrainian side of the last few days makes it clear about the dire situation of the Ukrainian army in terms of ammunition and weapons. "The Ukrainian president said that Ukraine is almost running out of artillery ammunition and the ratio is 1:10 to Russian artillery. Ukraine is almost finished with air defense missiles as well. So there's no question that all of these things affected both the Ukrainian military's ability to deter the Russian advance and the morale itself within the Ukrainian armed forces,” he explained, according to him, now the hope is in the quick delivery of ammunition – something that has already begun to happen.
It became clear that the US sent, in addition to financial aid, military tactical systems – missiles with a long range of up to 300 km, which, according to him, will also have a great impact on the course of hostilities from the point of view that with the possibility of reaching the rear positions of the Russian army, it is possible to disrupt the supply of equipment, ammunition and manpower of Russia to the front line, which will certainly weaken the Russian pressure.
Ivaylo Ivanov expressed his categorical opinion that there is no weapon that could radically change the course of the war on both sides of the front. For this reason, there is no way miracles will happen with the provision of the new military aid to Ukraine. According to him, no significant changes in the positions of the front line can be expected throughout the year.
According to him, this year Ukraine will not renew the counter-offensive, because, in addition to weapons and equipment, Ukraine also faces a shortage of people. "This is one of the mistakes of the Ukrainian leadership – Ukraine has slowed down in terms of mobilization to be able to provide enough people to replace losses and allow those who have already been fighting for quite a long period of time to withdraw to rest and recover. This process is yet to take place, which will last at least 3-4 months, and there is no doubt that Russia will try to make the most of this period,” he clarified.
According to him, there is no doubt that Russia will throw all its forces this summer to try to solve this conflict or tilt the scales seriously in its direction. "Now an attempt will be made to give some kind of victory that will seem significant in the eyes of Russian society. The obvious target is Chasov Yar, which is a truly strategic target not because it will cause any major advance for the Russian troops, but because it will open up space for them to prepare an offensive that is expected in early summer,” the expert thinks.
Russia needs to convince the world public that Ukraine is losing this conflict and it is pointless to help it, and it needs to do it before the US elections, because President Trump may seriously change the signals he gives regarding this conflict: i.e. from its quick resolution in favor of Moscow, as we currently have indications, to serious support for Ukraine. "If Russia does not appear to be winning this conflict, Donald Trump will not support policies that would benefit Moscow.“
Source: www.focus-news.net