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Stoicho Stoichev: The elections in June will produce a parliament that will not be able to generate a stable majority

The parties send messages to mobilize the hard cores, the agitators, and not to look for an expansion of the people who support them, the political scientist believes

Май 14, 2024 17:40 110

Stoicho Stoichev: The elections in June will produce a parliament that will not be able to generate a stable majority  - 1

New early parliamentary elections in autumn are possible.

This prediction was made before the BNR by the political scientist and university teacher Assoc. Stoicho Stoichev.

"I believe that the elections in June will produce a parliament that will not be able to produce a stable majority. And it is very likely that in the autumn we will go to parliamentary elections again. ... I expect the 50th National Assembly to be more fragmented - with between 6 and 8 parties. A coalition can be formed with more entities in it, leading to a more stable majority.

There is also a possibility that parity will be created between two main blocs in the parliament, which will not give the possibility to form this type of majority, therefore the probability of new early elections in the fall is not small", he clarified and emphasized that we are far since the stabilization of the political environment:

"To a large extent, this stabilization continues to be a chimera, given that we have a two-bloc division in the parliament. The division in the National Assembly will continue to exist. It will be based on several parties. It is difficult to say that some kind of status quo is returning or that there is stabilization.

Assoc. Stoycho Stoichev commented that we are in a permanent election campaign because "the parties send messages to mobilize the hard cores, the agitators, and not to look for the expansion of the people who support them on the basis of reasonable arguments".

"The bought vote and clientelistic voting cannot be countered with technology and punishments. It happens by overcoming the social marginalization in society and the permanent marginalization of some groups, who before they have civic self-awareness and think about their civil rights, their household needs must be met - things of first necessity.

As long as there are people who live in permanent poverty and are dependent on local employers - local deribei, moneylenders, etc., it cannot be overcome that these people will also control the votes of the people who are dependent from them. The measures are socio-economic. Until 100 years ago, voting was also done exclusively in the USA.

The problem is solved when people start to feel themselves as independent subjects - economically, in life and financially - from local factors, then no one can make them vote in a certain way," explained the political scientist and gave an example that " Bulgarians who go abroad in Western Europe, and are traditionally from the Kardzhali or Blagoevgrad regions, are much less likely to be mobilized to vote, as they were 20 years ago. There, the turnout decreased a lot, and during the last 2-3 elections, Kardzhali is probably the region with the lowest voter turnout in Bulgaria.