Have GERB and DPS firmly decided to have a cabinet... Will going to new elections devalue GERB as a party because it cannot form a government... What will be the third element… Political scientist Milen Zhelev spoke to FACTS.
- Mr. Zhelev, are there any surprises in the elections, if we exclude the fact that there is a new seventh party in the parliament – “Majesty“. Does anything else strike you…
- This is the big surprise, but if you say, we will turn it off… (smiles) No, we cannot rule out this huge surprise in relation to sociological surveys, it is also a surprise in relation to a large part of the voters who had not heard of “Greatness”. Only people who closely follow electoral attitudes are well aware and familiar with both the historical park in Vetrino and the face of the new formation – so called colonel Markov, who is actually a lieutenant colonel, but presents himself with the wrong rank, if I may say so. Many people and many politicians, and probably also people who follow the processes in politics, are well aware that new political figures use new channels of information. It's like “Twitter” in America, so the Telegram channels, it's the YouTube podcasts that are also uploaded to Spotify. In short, through them, hundreds of thousands of people in Bulgaria find out about various things, because they distrust the public media, the big websites, the national televisions. They are looking for alternative channels for information. This is what the new party “Velichie“ is using. I would not call this party nationalist, but national populist, which uses the new channels of information to gather supporters for months, even years
- Will we have an office?
- Without saying whether it is optimistic or pessimistic, but it is quite possible to have a cabinet. We don't have 100% of the ballots yet, so…
- Yes, we are still talking a little conventionally…
- It is completely logical that GERB-SDS plus DPS should serve the necessary number of votes in order to have a quorum and a majority. They may also create a cabinet, not for four, but at least until the winter, when protests are traditionally expected in Bulgaria. So my prediction is that there will be a cabinet.
- The fight between second, third and fourth place… What can predetermine, can we have a rearrangement, what can predetermine, for we see
small differences?
- The differences are small, but never in Bulgarian political life have events and processes been decided by ordinary mathematics - 121 plus. It is extremely important - as in any sports competition, even if it makes a small difference whether you are second, third or fourth. It's about who is the moral second, the moral third. There won't be a significant difference in percentages here, but who won, who are the others – this is of great importance. Especially for the leadership of these parties. Somehow the leaders in Bulgaria forget to take responsibility, because it matters whether you are second or third… Let them learn more from their Western counterparts, I mean French President Emmanuel Macron, who said he was dissolving the French parliament over the results of the European elections. I think that responsibility should be taken for this as well - not only who gets how many MPs into the parliament, but also in which position the party they represent is in.
- The burden that GERD will take, how much of a challenge will it be for them to make a cabinet?
- An experienced player like Borisov will carefully consider his next moves with his staff. Of course, the silence of the major parties on election night is disturbing. It's incorrect, it's undemocratic, it's not okay with the voters. My opinion is that GERB are not in a very advantageous situation, but they will play their cards like champions. They will say: “We would do it again, for what year! We are #1 again!“ In this way, they will try to consolidate not only the masses around them, but also to convince the other parties that it is worth coalition with them. They will probably need either other political information to support them, or to deduct people's representatives from other formations.
- When should we expect the “inevitable“, envisioned by President Rumen Radev, that a new project will appear!
- I would say that time works in favor of Rumen Radev. If he wants to create his own project, he must hit very strategically his chance and moment to leave the presidential chair to deal with parliamentary democracy. He can play a more startling role in relation to the other parties until he completes his second term, which according to Bulgarian legislation is his last. Time works in Radev's favor and he has no interest in rushing. A possible serious cataclysm - be it inside Bulgaria or geopolitically - could bring him onto the political stage earlier. At the moment, Radev has no interest in rushing a project.