It is July and it is normal to be warm. But how warm? Temperatures of 38-39 degrees, that up to and above 40… Is this what awaits us - warming of warming. In Sofia, the heat can reach 40 degrees. What weather awaits us… Climate scientist Prof. Georgi Rachev spoke to FACTS.
- Prof. Rachev, are we already in captivity of the warmest weather or is it yet to come?
- There is a high probability that the maximum temperatures for this summer will be reached next week. It will be very, very warm from today until the end of the week. When I say very warm, it will surely have places with daily records for the respective place. I mean to break the record for the day at a certain place. We are unlikely to reach the absolute maximums of temperature measured in the respective cities, but… I can say that the absolute maximum measured in Bulgaria in July was 45.2 degrees in Sadovo in the distant year 1916. A large part of my colleagues do not recognize this record. But there is another record that is very modern and very accurate. It was reported on July 5, 2000 in Plovdiv – exactly 45 degrees were registered, which is a very serious achievement. The top of the “cherry on the cake” in terms of warm weather, this week will be Tuesday and Wednesday, when there is a possibility that along the Danube and the Upper Thracian plain, naturally also in Sandanski, temperatures of the order of 41-42 degrees will be recorded. It will be 2-3 degrees to absolute maximums essentially. At the root of all this we are observing is a heat wave that is very long - the third week of July, in which it stays hot, hot and very, very hot.
- Something atypical. Is that how we understand…
? - Yes, this is atypical for Bulgaria's modern climate. That it gets to 40 degrees, that there are several days with high temperatures is not unusual. Such is the climate of Bulgaria. But let's remember that June was very hot. June turned out to be the warmest since meteorological observations were made. Now and July - the way it's going, there's a very good chance it'll be the warmest. And so the summer of 2024 may turn out to be the warmest in history.
- 2024 is shaping up to be warmer than 2023. 2023 was warmer than 2022… Is this what awaits us, is this the trend…
- The key word in your question is trend. And that's exactly what I wanted to say. In addition to the warmest summer, there is a very high probability that 2024 will turn out to be warmer than 2023, which was cultically warm in terms of climate. Keep in mind that so far we're running almost 2 degrees warmer than we were last year. This means that in the remaining months - despite the presence of the La Niña current, which brings that cooling effect from the equatorial Pacific Ocean, it may turn out that the temperatures will not be so low and 2024 may be the warmest year not only with us, but to be the warmest on a global scale. It is very warm throughout the Northern Hemisphere, which is currently in the height of its summer.
- And it follows that we have warming of warming with each passing year?
- That's the worrying thing. And as a general conclusion, we can point out that this happens very quickly. The fact that it is warm, that some records are being set is not something phenomenal. It won't be the first time, and it won't be the last. The problem is the prolonged heat. And this is noticeable until now in Varna, in Sandanski, and Ruse and Plevn are approaching, where we have a series of 7-8 days in which the average daily temperature is 29-30 degrees.
This is not something phenomenal, but it used to be 2 rarely 3 days, and now we are talking about a whole week.
It is not by chance that this warming or rather these changes, because you said the word “trend” very well, because we are talking about several years. This is a trend. When the years become the 10-15 warmest since 2000, we are talking about the beginning of this century, this is already a confirmation of the trend. When a 30-year period is fulfilled, and it is not far away - in just a few years, we can already talk not about a trend, but about a changed climate in our country. That's how things are. Look, humanity is very mobile, very adaptable. We will adapt to these heats. The point is that we don't have a memory, a normal human memory in modern society, of when it was so warm before that we could take some historical given and say - if it's simple mathematical logic, “… if, that“. To explain what's going on. We have the unknown, and that always creates fears.
- How does the very long warm weather affect our body?
- Not good. It is very difficult for our body to adapt. According to the research that I'm aware of from American military doctors and from Israeli military doctors, young men - you mean prime military men aged 27-32, 33, men in peak shape, they adapt to warm weather somewhere around about 25-30 days. They need that much to get used to and their body is adapted. I'm talking about strong men's bodies, but what's left for grandparents… What can we say about children in whom thermoregulation has not reached its peak in the development of the body. They must be guarded. Note, in many places in Europe where there is intense heat, so-called “cool homes”. It is a question of pitched tents, in which there is an air conditioner, so that from time to time people's bodies, even during the day, can take a break from the stress of the warm weather. And here comes the question: “What are we subjected to?“ At the moment we have a very high temperature, combined with a high sun, because now the day is about 3 pm. This is simply an overload for the body and for the entire water-salt balance in it. In this sense, all people who have any heart problems, any health problems, the warm weather acts as an additional load and unlocks an additional burden.
- And how are things by the sea? There's always a breeze there…
- Recently I spoke with friends who are on our sea. And they say that at 4 o'clock in the afternoon it's scary.
The sand has gotten very hot, but it is good for people to know that it reflects some of the ultraviolet radiation.
And this is a reason to burn under the umbrella. Not to mention, but I will return to the topic of small children, that for them the hours between 1 and 5 pm are deadly. It is good that they are in some kind of thick shade, maybe on the bar, but under the serious whip, and not only under the umbrella . In Bulgaria, we are blessed to have the incredible opportunity to drink Ayran, which has an excellent effect on the body.
Ayrian with more water and a few crystals of salt is a must.
Because when a person sweats, he releases a lot of trace elements from his body, and in this way, exactly this water-salt balance of the blood is disturbed. So a watermelon now does a phenomenal job, more fruit and fluids. As for alcohol, it is for “competitors”. At this point, it doesn't hurt to have one or two beers, because they can't in any way lead to something terrible for the body, but it's good that everyone knows their rug, everyone knows their measure, and you shouldn't overdo it, because there will be collapses . There will always be people with blood loss in the periphery of the blood vessels that dilate and the blood blood level drops. So it can blacken in front of your eyes, which is not good. These are unnecessary experiments, no one needs them. And the warm wave will pass, life and health. The weather will normalize from Sunday. When I say normalize, I mean that there will be a decrease in temperatures by 5-6 degrees. They will still remain above normal, but they will no longer be so close to 39-40 degrees, but will be in the order of 30, 32, 33 degrees, which is normal for the month of July, but let's not forget that the hot weather comes at the end of the month.