The United States did not declare war on Iran with its strikes on its nuclear facilities. Trump said that they must bring Tehran to the negotiating table, so everything is in its hands, and time is running out. The United States will not strike again, but is ready to respond in the event of a counterattack. The regime in Iran must make the fateful decision on how to move forward. Yes, Iran is extreme in its beliefs, but it is not so stupid as to risk the existence of its regime.
This was what former Deputy Foreign Minister Milen Keremedchiev told NOVA.
„The situation in the country is very difficult, the possibilities for a response with ballistic missiles are gradually decreasing. If in the first 3 hours of the conflict, which began on June 13, Tehran launched over 150 ballistic missiles, then in the last 17 hours they have been no more than 40. That is, Iran's ability to respond is decreasing. However, there is an option for attacks through proxies and closing the Strait of Hormuz, the most important oil artery in the world“, he explained.
According to Keremedchiev, Iran's response could happen not only in the region, but also on the territory of Europe:
“It is absolutely possible. Shiite militias in Iraq are ready to attack American sites. The embassy in Baghdad is already closed. Attacks on Israeli and Jewish sites in Europe - schools, synagogues, cultural institutions“ are also possible.
He added that “Islamized and radicalized Muslims“ can be activated for terrorist actions by Iranian proxies.
In addition to external threats, Iran is facing a difficult internal situation.
“According to my information from Tehran - people are massively withdrawing money from banks, which means that the banking system is on the verge of collapse. Shops are emptying, and people are leaving the city, seeking safety. The country is on the brink both economically and socially“, Keremedchiev pointed out.
Regarding a possible refugee wave, Keremedchiev was more moderate:
“At this stage, I do not expect one, since Iran is far away. If it happens, the first directions will be the neighboring countries. But the more real danger is from attacks on Israeli and American sites“.
He called for a clear reaction from Bulgarian institutions:
„I expect a statement from the Ministry of Interior on security and instructions to Bulgarian citizens in the region. It is even possible to convene the National Security Council“.
Particular attention was paid to the lack of public reaction from Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei:
„Khamenei is in hiding. He was named by Netanyahu as a target for elimination. According to the information I have, he is in a bunker, with no connection to the outside world“.
Keremedchiev stressed the importance of the figure of Khamenei: „He is 86 years old and has no clear successor. If he is eliminated, radicalization of the regime may occur – from Islamized to militarized“.
On the issue of a possible coup in Iran, Keremedchiev was skeptical:
„Currently, Iranians see an external threat and this unites them. Yes, there is strong opposition and dissatisfaction, but no one supports the Israeli strikes. It is more likely that the unrest will begin after the end of the fighting. The regime threatens with death anyone who publishes photos or videos from Tehran. This shows that the authorities are in a panic and are applying extreme measures“.