I do not think there will be an increase in loan interest rates after we enter the eurozone. This was explained to the Bulgarian National Radio by Stoyan Panchev, Expert Club for Economics and Politics.
"The eurozone itself is starting to reduce its interest rates. We also expect the US Federal Reserve to sharply lower interest rates. The ECB cannot afford to have much higher rates than those in the States. There will be an additional reduction in the eurozone. I think there will be a convergence of European interest rates to Bulgarian ones.
However, Panchev believes that the rapid growth of lending in Bulgaria is a problem.
The expert defines the explanatory campaign for the euro as "more like propaganda".
Stoyan Panchev sees no point in changing the way the poverty line is calculated in our country.
"Changing the methodology for such an indicator, especially without thinking, often leads to problems".
He also commented on the planned increase in the minimum wage to 1,213 leva.
"The minimum wage is currently calculated as 50% of the average wage. This is the new mechanism that constantly drives an increase in the minimum wage, which in turn drives an increase in the average. This mechanism must be changed very quickly. Employers are starting to circumvent the minimum wage even more".
Panchev analyzes Prime Minister Zhelyazkov's words that taxes and social security contributions will not be raised in the new budget.
"I am surprised that the Prime Minister made such a bold promise. It seems to me that taxes and social security contributions will have to be raised because of the budget deficit. Perhaps the Prime Minister is planning some way to control spending so that we can get within the limits. But I rather expect a tax increase. The quickest and most painless way to solve this problem is to raise VAT. But this is the least likely, because it will also lead to additional inflation".
He nevertheless expressed hope that there will be a move towards optimizing costs.
The deficit was omitted back in 2024, the expert pointed out.
"We omitted inflation because the government itself had believed that there would be no inflation after the positive convergence report.
If it happens like in Croatia, there may be an additional increase in prices".