By all means possible, Minsk supports Moscow’s aggressive actions in the region. Hybrid attacks against neighboring countries have become a new systemic policy of Belarus, writes Vadim Mozheyko for DW.
Alexander Lukashenko sometimes repeats the mantra about Belarus as a peaceful country, and sometimes rhetorically throws himself into the other extreme – because Belarusians and Russians were in the same trenches. It is true that the Belarusian army has not yet participated in combat operations in Ukraine on the side of Russia, but since the beginning of the war, and even before that – in preparation for this war, Minsk supported Moscow's aggressive policy by all means.
How Belarus helps Russia
The main vector here, of course, is Ukraine. The Lukashenko regime provided the Russian aggressor with its territory - first for imitation of military exercises, and then for a real invasion from the north - along the strategic direction towards Kiev. And it was not only about land territory, but also about the sky (for planes and drones), as well as transport infrastructure. From railway routes for cargo deliveries, to hospitals and sanatoriums for the treatment and rehabilitation of wounded Russian soldiers - Minsk provides its ally with full support. This also applies to hundreds of Belarusian enterprises that work for the Russian military-industrial complex.
But there are also immediate threats along the border. Since the first days of the war in Ukraine, Minsk has been conducting a variety of exercises there, and now it has formed a new brigade near Gomel - for the first time in the recent history of Belarus. This is an attempt to distract Ukrainian troops from the war zone and thus make the war easier for Russia. Although it realizes that this is a bluff, Kiev cannot completely ignore this challenge. To keep up the pressure, Ukraine has also resorted to threats: for example, Zelensky's successful ultimatum demanding that Belarus remove the transponders that help Russian drones attack Ukrainian cities. Neither side has officially commented on what happened to the repeaters, but Belarusian national security expert Vadim Kabanchuk has publicly stated that the repeaters were destroyed by Ukrainian drones.
Thus, Belarus is becoming a constant source of threats to Ukraine and is de facto getting deeper into the war.
How Minsk is testing NATO's readiness for action
The situation on Belarus' western and northern borders is no better. Although each separate piece of news does not portend the beginning of a global conflict, but sounds like an isolated incident on a separate border, together they are turning into a systematic policy of unconventional attacks and exploration of vulnerabilities on NATO's eastern flank. This is especially relevant against the backdrop of reports of the CIA director's visit to Moscow and the alleged warning to the Russian Federation not to attack the Baltic states.
It all started with the managed crisis on the Belarusian border with Poland - with the mass storming of border crossings by migrants in the fall of 2021. Belarusian border guards do not prevent such things, but only help, directing the process and directing migrants from one border to another - depending on Minsk's policy towards its neighbors. Thus, in 2026, migration flows from Poland and Lithuania were redirected mainly to Latvia.
With regard to Lithuania, Minsk tried different tactics. If in 2025 these were regular attacks with balloons carrying smuggled goods (which paralyzed the work of the Vilnius airport), then in 2026 Lithuanian border guards regularly discovered underground tunnels from the Belarusian side. Just like balloons, these tunnels can be used to deliver contraband cigarettes – and perhaps ammunition and saboteurs.
Drone flights from Belarus have also been registered in Poland and Lithuania. Minsk sometimes even informs its neighbors about this, and the drones seem to enter their airspace quite by accident, due to an error in geolocation. But in fact, this is a test of the air defense's ability to detect them, as well as a practical study of the reaction of NATO countries to such threats.
An information war is also being waged: politicians, bloggers and various supporters of the “Russian world” who have fled Poland, Lithuania and Latvia gather in Minsk. They are given a platform and even hired in state media to systematically slander neighboring countries, also addressing their Russian-speaking audience.
Peacekeeping is only a memory
During the period 2014-2020, when Minsk was a venue for negotiations on the issue of Ukraine, the official cliché was to describe Belarus as a “guarantor of regional security“. It was said that internal political stability made Minsk a reliable neutral partner for resolving conflicts and maintaining order in the region. At that time, regular meetings of the trilateral contact group on Ukraine issues were also held, and the military doctrine and national security concept of Belarus emphasized adherence to the principles of preventing war from its territory. Even the OSCE Minsk Group on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, established in 1992, was mentioned.
Now one can no longer talk about Minsk's neutrality. Since 2021 – from the hijacking of the “Ryanair” plane, which occurred in the spring, and the beginning of the artificially created migration crisis in the fall - Minsk has become a source of regional danger. And this risky policy can now be called systemic.