Israel faces weeks, and perhaps months, of political uncertainty after the final results of the snap election showed that there was no clear winner. Neither of the two main blocs—the first led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party, and the other by the centrist Yashar party of his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot—managed to secure the required majority of 61 seats to form a government in Israel’s 120-seat parliament, write Tel Shalev, Kara Fox, Andrew Carey and Henry Patterson in an analysis for CNN.
So, how could a new government be formed? The task certainly does not look easy, as deeply entrenched political and ideological divisions make the creation of any seemingly simple coalition almost impossible.
Still, it is achievable—even if the result is a fragile alliance that remains in power for barely a year. If the party leaders fail to find a solution within the 12 weeks available to them, Israelis will once again have to go to the polls.
Here are several possible scenarios that could prevent this.
Scenario 1: An opposition government
On paper, the opposition’s most certain path to removing Netanyahu from power is based on cooperation between Jews and Arabs. And that is precisely its biggest obstacle. Two of the leaders of right-wing parties in the opposition bloc—former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman—oppose any government that depends on the two Arab parties in parliament (“United List” and “Ra’am”), whether through participation in the coalition or outside support for a minority government.
The positions of the two leaders hardened after the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023. In Israel’s history, only one government has included the full participation of an Arab party. Ra’am was part of an eight-party coalition that succeeded in removing Netanyahu from power in 2021, but it collapsed after just one year in office.
Even without forming a government, the opposition parties could cooperate and use their parliamentary majority to replace the speaker of the Knesset and take other key positions, thereby limiting the options of Netanyahu’s caretaker government while it remains in power. However, the prospects of forming a coalition to replace him at the helm of Israel remain extremely complicated and politically charged.
Scenario 2: A national unity government
Another possible scenario involves the two blocs breaking apart in favor of a national unity government. It would certainly include Netanyahu’s Likud party, along with some of his current coalition partners, as well as—and crucially—at least one party from the opposition bloc.
It is believed that in such a case Netanyahu would be willing to part ways with far-right National Security Minister Ben-Gvir, but not with far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and the ultra-Orthodox parties. Eisenkot, however, rules out joining a government with Netanyahu; if he changed his mind, it would be seen as a betrayal by many Israelis who desperately want to see the end of “Bibi’s” rule.
Scenario 3: A Netanyahu-bloc government with defectors
Another scenario would see Netanyahu encourage lawmakers from opposition parties to cross over to his camp. All the leaders of the opposition bloc’s parties—Eisenkot, Bennett, Lieberman and Yair Golan—have said they will not serve in a government with him, and since Netanyahu’s bloc is short by a full eight seats, attracting eight individual lawmakers would be an extremely difficult task.
Scenario 4: New elections
While these possibilities are being discussed behind the scenes, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will hold a series of public consultations with the leaders of the parties that entered parliament. After hearing their views, he will task one of those leaders with forming a government. The Arab parties are expected to support Eisenkot, so the leader of Yashar may get the first chance.
Whoever is assigned the task will have 28 days to complete it, with the possibility of an additional 14-day extension if necessary. If the attempt fails, the president will invite a second leader to try. He will have only 28 days to reach an agreement.
After that, a majority of Knesset lawmakers may ask the president to assign the task to a third candidate, who will have 14 days to form a coalition. If none of these attempts leads to a breakthrough, new elections will be held.
The person who appears to be in the most advantageous position under this timetable is Netanyahu. As caretaker prime minister, he can afford to wait: if his main rival Eisenkot gets the first chance and fails, the mandate will likely then pass to Netanyahu himself. And if he also fails, the political deadlock will almost certainly lead Israel to another election, with Netanyahu remaining at the head of the caretaker government for months, until a new cabinet is formed.
Holding new elections, which would take place no earlier than next spring, is a very real possibility, as the current results threaten to return Israel to a state of political paralysis. That would mean seven parliamentary elections within eight years.
Source: news.bg