Ekrem İmamoğlu, Erdogan's biggest opponent, has been in prison for almost three months. At the same time, his party is threatened with a split. Will Erdogan manage to prevail over the opposition this time too?
The MEP and the European Parliament's rapporteur for Turkey, Nacho Sánchez Amor, is convinced: The case against Ekrem İmamoğlu is rigged, and he is in prison because "they can't defeat him".
He adds that the obvious task of the Istanbul prosecutor's office is the political destruction of İmamoğlu. "I will inform my European colleagues", said Sanchez Amor after visiting Imamoglu in prison.
The former mayor of Istanbul and presidential candidate of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) has been in Silivri prison since March 19. Imamoglu, 54, is accused of corruption, forming a criminal group and supporting terrorism. 130 people have been detained in the investigations so far, with the number increasing daily.
Imamoglu enjoys great solidarity. His party is organizing protests across the country. But this support could soon falter.
The most dangerous opponent for Erdogan
Imamoglu is considered close to the people, charismatic and able to mobilize people - he has been the strongest opponent of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for years. Imamoglu defeated Erdogan's candidates in the Istanbul mayoral elections three times, ending a period in which the Justice and Development Party was considered invincible.
These successes gave Imamoglu self-confidence. After losing the presidential and parliamentary elections in May 2023, the politician insisted that his party reform. At the party congress in the fall of last year, thanks to Imamoglu's strong support, Özgür Özel was elected chairman of the political force, and the entire party leadership was replaced. Since then, the trust in the AKP has been growing, and it managed to win the local elections a year later. Imamoglu was seen as a potential presidential candidate, and in March his candidacy was officially nominated.
Key trial against the AKP
Following the arrest of Imamoglu and other opposition politicians in recent months, the AKP has been under increasing pressure. Now the party faces its next big challenge - a key trial is underway against it.
On June 30, a court in Ankara could declare the election of the new party leadership null and void. Some supporters of the former party chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu claim that there were irregularities in the election procedure, which is why they have filed an appeal. The reformist wing led by Özel and İmamoğlu, on the other hand, is accused of buying votes.
Politically motivated trial
Media outlets close to the government have long been trying to create a split in the largest opposition party, its supporters believe. According to them, the claim that the previous chairman and his wing were victims of party intrigues is being spread deliberately. If this was indeed done intentionally, the goal has been achieved - within the RNP and its membership, the warring parties are attacking each other with harsh words, accusations and insults.
Political scientist Baris Yovgün says that "they have fallen into the trap of the government", which has long pursued the tactic of sowing division between the different wings of the opposition in order to weaken it. "With their decision on June 30, the judges can remove the current party leadership", Yovgün commented to DW. At the same time, he believes that the announcement of the decision will probably be postponed in order to further deepen the opposition within the RNP and to suggest to the public that since they cannot control their party, they will not govern the country.
If the election of the current party leadership is declared null and void, observers fear that chaos will ensue in the opposition. Until a new party congress is convened and a new leadership is elected, uncertainty and a lack of leadership will prevail - and this could accelerate the party's split. However, it is also possible that the old party chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu will return and his wing will gain the upper hand.
Will Erdogan prevail over the opposition again?
Kilicdaroglu, who is considered part of the conservative wing of the party, led the HDP for 13 years and lost elections to Erdogan during that time. That is why he is considered the president's preferred opponent.
Political scientist Berk Esen criticizes Kılıçdaroğlu's hesitation in the current discussion. Although he claims to keep his distance, he is listed in the indictment as a victim and aggrieved, Esen notes. In fact, İmamoğlu and many other politicians from the party should be accused, the former leader of the X platform wrote.
Esen also says that in connection with the decision of June 30, the way could be opened to a complete political ostracization of İmamoğlu. The entire process is "leverage of the ruling party against the opposition", which can be used at any moment. Kılıçdaroğlu's indirect support for the process makes it difficult for the opposition to take a unified and clear position against the Turkish government.
The scenarios from here on out could seriously damage İmamoğlu's image, observers say. The lack of support and declining trust in his party could permanently push Erdogan's most serious competitor into the background.