DV: Donald Trump has given Russia 50 days to conclude a ceasefire with Ukraine. Some see this as an ultimatum, while others see these 50 days as a gift to Putin. What do you think is behind the new rhetoric of the American president?
Nina Khrushcheva: From my point of view, this is what we assumed from the very beginning. If Vladimir Putin does not make any concessions and remains firm in his positions, Trump will eventually take offense. What happened has nothing to do with politics: Trump's narcissism shines through, it's just show business for him.
Putin actually insulted him because there are many other politicians who are ready to kiss him. Vladimir Zelensky, for example, has already been explained to him that Trump needs to be constantly told how much we are grateful to him. And Putin insists. I mean, for Trump this is insulting - including when he is reminded that he was warned about what Putin is like.
But at the same time, we see how Trump, regardless of everything, wants the Nobel Prize. And for that, he will have to make Putin negotiate. That's the only way he can hope to get this award. So Trump seems to be telling Putin: "Vladimir, you can avoid the sanctions, you can help me, and in the end we will all look good". What Vladimir thinks about this is another question.
DV: On the other hand, now the Europeans will pay for American military aid to Ukraine. Does Trump consider this a victory?
Khrushcheva: But what kind of victory? All the time, ever since he was elected president, not even since he took office, we have been talking about the fact that in his opinion this war is not his, but Biden's, and he is for peace. And that he was the only person who wanted this war to end - the others did not care. The mistake is that European leaders tried to appeal to his democratic feelings. However, the problem for Europeans and Ukraine is that Trump is not waging an ideological struggle with Russia. In fact, if Trump were in Putin's place, he would behave in exactly the same way. That is, they share absolutely the same views: strength wins, and if some not-so-strong people step on your corn, you have to punch them right in the face. So everything that Trump is doing today, of course, you can describe it in any way you want, but it is not in defense of Ukraine, but because Putin simply insulted him.
Of course, this war interests Trump only from an economic point of view. And only to the extent that he does not want to seem like a person who has given in to Putin. So there is a personal animosity between the two and we have to see, firstly - how this card will be played by Vladimir Putin, if it is played at all; and secondly - how long Trump will continue to hope to receive the Nobel Prize.
DW: But how much are his words worth in these 50 days? Because there were other ultimatums and other deadlines that Russia simply ignored?
Khrushcheva: Everything will depend on how Trump feels during these 50 days. That is why I am completely sure that we are watching a reality show right now. In it, every day starts over, every day is a new drama and a new crisis. So now it's 50 days, and the day after tomorrow - 150. It all depends on how the scenario of this reality show will develop.
I am convinced that in general Trump's patience is running out, but he is ready to wait a little longer - so that Putin, let's say, can do him some good service, which will be described as a victory for Trump. But even if this does not happen, he will always win in his reality show. He is the hero of the show, and as the hero of the show, he cannot but be the main one. Or he can be the loser. So the result in both cases will be framed as an incredible victory for Trump.
DW: Can we talk about a change in the US position after the conversation between Zelensky and Trump, during which the US president asked why the Ukrainian armed forces were not striking Moscow, and Zelensky replied that they could if they received the appropriate weapons? The previous US administration of Biden did the opposite: it sought to limit Ukraine's ability to strike with American weapons deep into Russian territory and took care not to give Putin a reason for escalation. Doesn't this mean that the Trump administration, at some later stage of irritation with Putin's behavior, could drop all its moral inhibitions?
Khrushcheva: First, Trump has no moral restraints in principle. For Trump, morality is not a deterrent. On the contrary, he reacts as he sees fit - not only to prove that he is right, but also to demonstrate strength. The question of striking deep into Russia, of course, is to some extent irresponsible. But this does not surprise me at all, because Trump is not a politician, nor a statesman, nor a president, he is a hero of a reality show. And for a hero of a reality show it is quite normal to ask: “Why, after complaining about someone, don't you punch him in the face?“. I mean, if Trump gets even angrier at Putin, he will have no moral restraints. And I can imagine that he would be happy to watch the Kremlin burn. Can you imagine what a show that would be? And how will he say to himself: “With me, this hornet's nest has finally been destroyed, I am a great president. All American presidents during the Cold War saw Red Square as their number one target, but I finally did it, and they will talk about it for centuries to come“.
DV: How do you assess Moscow's rather restrained reaction so far?
Khrushcheva: So far, the official reaction has been restrained, but the unofficial one is a little more violent. As far as I know, in Moscow - both on television and in newspapers - the narrative is already being imposed that we don't need to worry about Trump, because we have already seen his true face and America cannot be trusted. So let's see what will happen during these 50 days. The bad thing is that a real war is being waged, not some reality show. And ever since Trump returned to the White House, we've been constantly wondering what exactly he meant when he said something. Now we don't know if those 50 days are really 50 days. And no solution is in sight.
Author: Olga Tikhomirova