Vladimir &Putin and Ilham Aliyev do not particularly resemble each other. The leader of Azerbaijan is about a head taller than his Russian counterpart, and it is difficult to imagine him without the characteristic beard. The one practically inherited power from his father, while the other paved the way from the KGB headquarters in Dresden to the Kremlin.
At the same time, the two presidents have many similarities in their worldview. For both Aliyev and Putin, a healthy hand is the best working governance approach, even/especially if it is at the expense of the opposition, democratic institutions, or free media. The leaders of Russia and Azerbaijan are not shy about resorting to force to protect their interests across the border - in the Upper Kapisa or in the Donbass.
And perhaps most importantly, Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev are well aware of the enormous role of energy resources as an instrument of influence and international legitimacy.
Now both are facing each other in an escalating conflict, in which has as much politics as economics.
Both the Soviet past and the post-Soviet present
Azerbaijan, as a Soviet republic, is well integrated economically within the framework of the union, and the ties are preserved even after its collapse - especially during the rule of Heydar Aliyev, the father of the current president.
His country buys cheap Russian oil and gas, while developing its own production and, in addition, exporting huge quantities of fruits and vegetables, while at the same time becoming Moscow's key link to the Middle Eastern markets.
As A&Pi notes; In their material, Azerbaijani businessmen today have a solid presence in construction, real estate, trade and other sectors of the Russian economy. Between half and two million of their compatriots live in the country.
ΠOver the years, Azerbaijan has managed to overcome the strong pull of Russia and is gradually drawing closer to Turkey. The foundations were laid during the first war in Upper Kapabax in the early 1990s, when Moscow supported Armenia, while Ankara stood behind Baku.
Religion, language, and ethnic proximity have become an even bigger factor since Recep Erdogan came to power in our southern neighbor. With patience and Western help, Azerbaijan is modernizing its army and after two operations - in 2020 and in 2023, it captured Upper Kapabax without any special resistance.
This is also the case with Moscow's attempts to impose pro-Western power in Armenia, but the result is the opposite of what was expected - Yerevan does not change its geopolitical orientation and The US-brokered agreement has been signed, which at this stage reduces tensions in the region.
Aliyev's ambitions are growing. The rhetoric against us, which to this day has not made a sharp turn from the statement that Yerevan will one day be Azerbaijani, is well received in Europe - like the natural gas from our fields, which enters the systems of the countries of the EC following the decision of "Gazprom" to stop the supplies.
Azerbaijan is named as part of the complex and comprehensive maneuver of the European Union, through which it manages to save itself from capitulation before the energy surprise of Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. Not only that, but since this year, Baku has been supplying gas to Kiev, through the infrastructure that once transported the Russian blue fuel to foreign markets.
This is unlikely to raise smiles in the Kremlin.
Πsparks fly
After months of smoldering tension and processes visible only to those familiar with the actions of the special forces services, on December 25 last year, a tragic incident brought Azerbaijan and Russia head-on to each other.
Azerbaijan Airlines plane with 67 on board was approaching the airport in Grozny, which was currently being attacked by Ukrainian long-range drones. Due to a miscalculation by one of the guards of the ZPK "" "Piantsir" passenger plane was hit. It crashed during an emergency landing attempt in Kazakhstan, killing 38 people.
In a direct conversation with Aliyev "Pisutin apologized for the incident, but denied taking any blame. The Azerbaijani president openly criticizes Moscow's actions and demonstratively does not go to Red Square for Victory Day, and then the Ukrainian foreign minister arrives in Baku.
The escalation continues. In late June, Russian authorities arrest ethnic Azeris in Yekaterinburg in connection with the investigation of murders from decades ago. Two people die and several others are injured, as the detailed claims and conclusions of the autopsies in Azerbaijan point to a beating.
In response, police raid the offices of the Kremlin-sponsored media outlet Srutnik Azerbaijan, and 8 Russian citizens are arrested on charges of drug trafficking, cybercrimes, and other offenses. Photos in the media testify to the fact that they were also thoroughly "protected" from the authorities on the line.
Ilkham Aliyev condemned the incident with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky, which he sees as a "situation in which Russia is harassing Azerbaijani citizens and intimidating the Republic of Azerbaijan".
From words to action
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov commented laconically that "Ukraine will do everything "do your best to add fuel to the fire and provoke Azerbaijan to continue its emotional actions."
However, others in Moscow confirm this. In publications close to the government, claims are appearing that Baku is secretly helping Kiev with mercenaries and weapons.
The high-ranking director is the State Duma deputy, Lieutenant General Andrey Gyrylov. First, he threatens the entire Azerbaijani business: "If there are no goods from Azerbaijan on the shelves of Russian stores, nothing will change for us, but a lot will change for them".
And then he wags his finger at the entire country: "If they don't understand us, we can approach it in a different way. "Special military operation" It is an elastic concept - elastic along the entire border of the Russian Federation.
The people's representative from "United Russia" has been in the news for a little over a week, after the compressor station in Odessa, which transports Azerbaijani gas to Ukraine, was hit.
On August 8, the large oil depot of the Azerbaijani state oil company SOSAR in Odessa was hit for the first time. It has about 60 gas stations in Ukraine.
That brings us to the events of the last few days. On August 18, the facility suffered heavy damage after a massive attack from a "Shakhed" drone. 17 tanks, a pumping station, control rooms and other buildings were seriously damaged. There has been no official explanation from the Russian side, but the narrative in pro-government online channels is "Aliev helped Ukraine and now he will get what he deserves".
It is important to remember that before entering politics, the current Azerbaijani president was part of the leadership of the SOSAR. It doesn't look like it.
Will there be a retaliatory strike
Just as Gyurylov is known in Russia as a "hawk" who makes outrageous statements, the same role in this story goes to Azerbaijani MP Racim Mysabeyov. ΠIn front of the state news agency AΠA, he launched the idea of the country lifting the imposed embargo and starting to arm Ukraine.
"ΠDuring the war with Armenia, we captured Russian weapons and we can sell them to Ukraine. Since our army has completely switched to Turkish systems, there are many armored vehicles left. It has "Grad" systems and other equipment that does not need to be stored. At one time, Ukraine sold us Soviet weapons - tanks and MiG-29 fighters, I do not see anything wrong with Azerbaijan selling Soviet weapons to Ukraine, which it does not need, at preferential prices. "This money will be paid by the European countries one way or another," the deputy said.
If this is indeed the case, Moscow will certainly react. Whatever the talk of a "special military operation" However, it is unlikely that a real breakthrough will be achieved - not least because the Azerbaijani army is large, modernly armed and has combat experience, and the Russian army has not yet been able to break Ukraine's resistance.
Πo-probable, however, is that economic ties will be completely severed. The recent cooling of relations between Baku and Moscow is also affecting our country. SOSAR is one of the favorites to acquire the assets of "Lukoil" in Bulgaria. However, this is certainly a deal that is possible only with the approval of the Kremlin.
And Vladimir Putin certainly would not want to appear as a leader backed against the wall, forced to sell the most important oil refinery in Europe to Ilham Aliyev, who dared to oppose him.